who is ready for some bc election tweets
Is this the election where the counting of votes in B.C. has some suspense in determining who forms government?
Maybe! Particularly if the strong results for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada continue in Ontario and Quebec.
Maybe! Particularly if the strong results for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada continue in Ontario and Quebec.
B.C. starts counting its votes 30 minutes after everyone else, at 7pm local time.
If the Liberals are up by less than 20 seats around 7:15, then we'll have big drama in who forms a plurality, and a lot of time spent on B.C.
If the Liberals are up by less than 20 seats around 7:15, then we'll have big drama in who forms a plurality, and a lot of time spent on B.C.
Do we have charts?
Of course we have charts.
If you look at results in B.C. outside the City of Vancouver, it's been a two-party province historically.
And if you believe the polls, we're likely heading back to that.
Of course we have charts.
If you look at results in B.C. outside the City of Vancouver, it's been a two-party province historically.
And if you believe the polls, we're likely heading back to that.
A big question in B.C. will be mail-in ballots, which won't be counted tonight.
16 of the 25 ridings in Canada with at least 5,000 mail-in ballots are in B.C., including a number of swing seats.
Could mean a lot of unknowns at the end of the night.
16 of the 25 ridings in Canada with at least 5,000 mail-in ballots are in B.C., including a number of swing seats.
Could mean a lot of unknowns at the end of the night.
In northern B.C. and the Interior, I'm looking at the two NDP/Conservative battleground ridings in the Kootenays, the other seven less likely to flip.
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
On Vancouver Island, the question of whether the Green Party can keep its two seats — and if it loses support, where that support goes to — looms large
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
In the Fraser Valley, the Conservatives are in their traditional dominant position, but there are a few interesting ridings, particularly in and around Surrey
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
But it's the ridings in and around Vancouver that will probably be watched the most: a number of 3-way races, where polling models, candidate strength and local issues can all tell you different stories
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
You know the drill: we’ll start out slow, eventually ramping up to ALL CAPS excitement.
It’s certainly an artificial show, given all the ballots have already been counted and it’s just a question of which ones are counted when.
but these are minor details
It’s certainly an artificial show, given all the ballots have already been counted and it’s just a question of which ones are counted when.
but these are minor details
meanwhile right now is that special time of night where 50% of people are going "haha, the tv is showing a seat where one party has 17 votes and the other has 3" and 50% are going "OH GOD WHAT DOES IT MEAN"
waiting to drop
POLLS CLOSED IN BC
TIME TO WAIT FOR MANY MINUTES BEFORE ANYTHING HAPPENS
TIME TO WAIT FOR MANY MINUTES BEFORE ANYTHING HAPPENS
we've got some small sample size results coming in slowly folks!
FORTRESS NDP HAS FALLEN
*not really
*seriously this won't hold
*is the polling station on josh's block
*not really
*seriously this won't hold
*is the polling station on josh's block
Still early results, but we're not seeing the sort of surge from the Conservatives in Ontario/Quebec necessary to prevent the Liberals getting a plurality of seats tonight.
Which means B.C.'s streak of not mattering on election night will! likely! continue!
Which means B.C.'s streak of not mattering on election night will! likely! continue!
aaaaaaaaaaaaaand there we have it
We aren't projecting a majority or minority government for the Liberals just yet.
But I'm hard pressed to find the 30 extra seats where votes haven't started being counted yet to get over the majority mark.
BC'S STREAK OF NOT MATTERING CONTINUES
But I'm hard pressed to find the 30 extra seats where votes haven't started being counted yet to get over the majority mark.
BC'S STREAK OF NOT MATTERING CONTINUES
Gonna hold off on any further looks at B.C. ridings until more than 5% of polling stations are in.
this is purely based on ethics and not because the election is basically determined and i want to take a short break and set up interviews
this is purely based on ethics and not because the election is basically determined and i want to take a short break and set up interviews
Not too many ridings in B.C. where the Liberals have a chance to flip a seat, but Cloverdale-Langley City was one of them due to the perceived weakness of CPC incumbent Tamara Jansen, and so far encouraging results for them
we did it joe
tonight
Okay back to some analysis
As in suburban Toronto, the surge the Conservatives needed in suburban Vancouver just isn't happening.
Things could change in Steveston-Richmond East, but the Conservatives are losing in ridings like this all over the 604.
As in suburban Toronto, the surge the Conservatives needed in suburban Vancouver just isn't happening.
Things could change in Steveston-Richmond East, but the Conservatives are losing in ridings like this all over the 604.
We could be in for a long night in Vancouver-Granville (and a long couple days counting the 5,776+ mail-in votes).
Are the majority of polling stations counted so far in Shaughnessy? Mt. Pleasant? MYSTERY THIRD OPTION?!?
(look the level of drama at this point is low)
Are the majority of polling stations counted so far in Shaughnessy? Mt. Pleasant? MYSTERY THIRD OPTION?!?
(look the level of drama at this point is low)
The Green Party got 12.5% of the vote in B.C. last election.
They're at just 5.2% right now.
They could hold onto both seats they currently have, but a big step back in the vast majority of ridings.
They're at just 5.2% right now.
They could hold onto both seats they currently have, but a big step back in the vast majority of ridings.
It's a pretty bad night for the polling-centred narrative that the Liberals were falling badly in British Columbia.
Right now they're poised to pick up three seats, and hold on to every riding had before.
Right now they're poised to pick up three seats, and hold on to every riding had before.
(quiet voice) there are more than 5500 mail-in votes to be counted in vancouver granville, you aren't going to say who wins tonight, go get a good night's sleep
NDP partisans: you didn't lose any seats, have gained Port Moody-Coquitlam, and could gain Nanaimo-Ladysmith!
Liberal partisans: you're still in government, didn't lose any seats, and could gain both Richmonds!
don't invest too much sweat into one seat
or do i'm not your mom
Liberal partisans: you're still in government, didn't lose any seats, and could gain both Richmonds!
don't invest too much sweat into one seat
or do i'm not your mom
help i need a new headline for tomorrow
(sigh) okay go nuts
once again there are are over five thousand mail in ballots to count but also please spare a thought for poor dan
https://twitter.com/QEDanMazur/status/1439779984634044416
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