Thread by @DefenseNigeria

With French Defence Minister Florence Parley in Mali attempting to stop the deployment of Russian troops in Mali, let's take an in-depth look at the big picture. What is really going on.

France is all over the place. From West Africa to Central Africa to Libya to Southern Africa to an apology tour of Rwanda to the South China Sea to Australia. It takes an incredible amount of andrenaline to maintain this tempo of engagement,

Picture this. You’re driving down a road, singing along with your favorite song, cool air rushing in, when out of nowhere a trailer appears in a bend in the road. Before you know what’s happening, you swerve to miss it and slam on your breaks. You’re breathing hard and fast,

your heart is pounding, your legs are shaking, your body is sweating, but your mouth is dry. Your body go from relaxed in the driver’s seat to full fight or flight mode in seconds.

This is what France is dealing with. They are losing ground everywhere and its scary.

The latest U.S, British an Australia pact delivers France some hard truths. Recalling its Ambassador to the U.S is beyond infantile. When they pick themselves up from their humiliation, the French will need to gather their sangfroid and confront some cruel verities.

ONE. There is no sentiment in geostrategy. The French must see there is no point in wailing about having been shoddily treated. The United States is a superpower. France is not. With rising tensions with China, the United States can come to the aid of Australia.

France cannot. The fact is that the Australians realize the Chinese threat is real and so needed to boost their level of deterrence.

Whoever heard of a nation short changeing its defence priorities out of not wanting to give offence?

They are doing the exact same thing to Mali. Mali is a sovereign country not a French colony. They reserve the right to plot their own security future. Sometimes nations decide their interests are best served by joining alliances. No sentiments.

The second truth is that

..70+ years after the end of WW II, Europe expects the United States to keep subsidizing their defence while they build amazing infrastructure and take care of their citizens. The moment the U.S makes a pivot to pursue its own national interest France and Germany are quick

to label the U.S isolationist or Nationalist. Think about it. The United States was forced to clean up Europe's mess not once but TWICE in two world wars. After the war the United States spent

..billions of dollars under the Marshal Plan to rebuild western Europe. The United States also provided a security umbrella against the Soviets, allowing Europe to focus squarely on economic development rather than having to worry about the Soviet threat. Its been 70+ years.

When Trump realized France was using U.S logistics assets as a piggy bank and wanted to pull out U.S forces from Niger, Chad and Cameroon, Emmanual Macron flew to Washington to basically plead with Trump not to pull out U.S forces, saying the region will descend into chaos.

Europe is having a hard time coming to grips with the fact that the US no longer has any great interest in the outdated behemoth that is NATO that was used as riot police to destroy Libya.

Gaullists in France, and President Emmanuel Macron is one of them - dream of their

country as a fully independent power, exercising its force for good thanks to a global presence and nuclear backed military strength. France has cleverly bound itself to the US led alliance for expediency. France is almost like Iran.

Libya is an example. They could never go it alone. The U.S is the only nation in the world today with the logistics assets to mount a massive operation thousands of miles from home. To achieve its aim France used NATO as a clever bit of subterfuge to weasel America's assets.

How do i know this? Well think about it. France pulled out of the military arm of NATO in 1966. Then in a move that surprised everyone Nicolas Sarkozy, out of the blue restored France's membership in 2009. Just like that. Two years later Nicolas Sarkozy is calling on a military

on the most powerful military alliance in human history, an alliance created to fight a nuclear 3rd world war with the Soviet Union, to stop the riots in Libya.

Two years ago Emmanuel Macron described NATO as "brain-dead".

Today he is displeased about America's pivot to Asia, and like it did in 1966 when France pulled out of NATO, Emmanual Macron like

..a petulant child recalled its Ambassador. While that is still going on we have the French Defence minister in Mali trying to scuttle the country's security arrangement with Russia. If France was a human being, a appointment to the "ward" for emotional burnout will be in order.

But the third harsh truth is, as Chimamanda Adiechie said, France seems to have forgotten it is no longer an 18th Century world power.

There is no obvious other way for France to fulfil its global ambitions. It lacks the capability.

The lesson of the last weeks AUKUS pact between the U.S, Australia and the UK is that France by itself is too small to make much of a dent in strategic affairs. The prospect of France challenging China is laughable. China is a superpower. Its the richest nation on earth.

Every four years the Chinese build as many ships as there are in the entire French fleet. When it came to the crunch, the Australians preferred to be close to a superpower, not a minipower.

France should accept the reality the glory days of Napoleon is never coming back. The Australians are a pragmatic bunch. The U.S is the only country that can cripple China economically and militarily. The UK's is Europe's only other serious army.

The two countries have similar histories and world experiences. Their soldiers respect each other. Britain and not the other war round. Britain has a thriving economy that does not rely on the resources of Common Wealth member states.

It has arguably the second capable navy in the world. Mali, and much of francophone AFRICA is tired of Paris and wants to chart its couese for its own destiny. That is the last of Macron's painful truths.