@chittukuruvi4
This is the video to broadly answer your evergrande question
@chittukuruvi4
This is a very interesting conversation. Ofc, none better than @_nirajshah to ask those relevant questions.
The key part: it’s not really about evergrande hitting us.
It’s about this huge india story. Key factor: India needs to go up 8-10% to meet pre-covid levels
@chittukuruvi4
Another key take away:
This guy is already talking about being selective. That’s very interesting.
It’s as if he is indicating that we are near the peak or we are a bit past it.
And, he expects a >5% correction.
I think earnings will adjust.
@chittukuruvi4
Personally, I believe that September quarter results and December results will justify the current prices. A lack of 3rd wave is still not factored in.
And, there is the return to normalcy boom pending.
@chittukuruvi4
Coming to foreign capital in chinese real estate sector, that money will shift to other markets. India has done pretty well ytd. So, some will flow to us.
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I am not an economist, but this is what i feel is happening around us.
This is start of a rant.
Pandemic induced trade disruption is a reality.
It’s timing though is either miraculous or impeccable, based on which side of the conspiracy theory aisle you prefer.
Pre-pandemic, everything wasn’t really that rosy. And this is around the world.
3. Stuff like steel, oil, etc were already under some kind of pressure.
A lot of muck was getting stirred in China.
Global gdp growth data in pic. The last peak was the 4.3% in 2009. In 2019, it was a mere 2.3%. People were just hoping that 2020 would be better.
For a conservative, low margin money person(low money at hand), the best option in credit spreads is about 25-30 delta. You are looking for risk reward 1:0.5 to 1:0.25.
You can manage at 1:1 by being more active.
110. #Options#Notes
It’s better to have all spreads at 1/3rd the width of strike.
That gives us a 1:0.5 RR ratio. Ex: trade with max profit of ₹1k has max loss of ₹2k.
You can’t have a low probability trade unless you are damn sure about it.
If you are going to be directional, be directional.
I had tried both ATM bullish put spread and 35 delta put spread on SBIN. I got more out of former because i got the direction right and i used closer to 50 delta.
I believe what’s happening now is a disruption in the way we think of commutation.
The pandemic has shown us that an 8-hr office is not really necessary.
Of course, there are sectors where Work-From-Home doesn’t make sense.
But, vast majority of work can be done from home.
The reason: we have now digital connectivity substituting for physical or road connectivity.
This is an option we never had in the past.
Technically, we can employ people from home, with an occasaional face to face interaction for certain limited activities that require physical presence.
He will always be remembered as the man who united the nation.
A brief thread with a contrarian view follows:
1. There has been a consensus so far that making all princely states join the union of India was a wonderful thing.
And then, there was these massive state reorganisations starting from 1956.
2. First point to accept: the “provinces” under British were already large.
But, are we supposed to believe that none of the “founding fathers” who fought for independence were unaware of the local history? I don’t buy such a claim.
@invest_mutual correct me if I am wrong, but bonds are not FD replacements.
In most, you buy a bond at a higher price. The effective yield, if you held it till maturity, is going to be lesser. If you want to make money by buying and selling bonds, you might as well buy index fund
Reason:
You should know when bond prices will shoot up to give you sufficient capital gains/profit. You should get better profit than holding the bond till maturity.
You should be certain that the company won’t default in the mean time.
If bond is selling very cheap, it’s because the risk is higher.
Though on paper you may get high yield, there is no guarantee that the company won’t default.
Even if you got it cheap and the company didn’t go bankrupt, the bond may not be liquid enough to actually make profit.