1. I've devoted much of my career to understanding authoritarianism and the breakdown of democracy. And I'm growing increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for American democracy, because of one simple question: what could slow down the GOP march toward authoritarianism?
2. I've thought a lot about this and I can come up with hundreds of reasons why the increasing authoritarian extremism in the Republican party/base is not just self-sustaining, but likely to accelerate. Let's start with just a few key reasons for this ratcheting extremism here:
3. Primaries: Republicans who try to govern by consensus, compromise, or democratic principles rather than relentlessly kowtowing to autocratic Trumpian dogma now end up with primary challengers. Everyone knows this in the GOP, so even moderates become more extreme over time.
4. Gerrymandering: this is bad and getting worse. Most districts are uncompetitive, leading to electoral landslides, so the only way for a Republican to lose is to provoke a primary challenger. That means that the rational strategy is to pander to the authoritarian extremists.
5. (Social) Media breakout power. Two/three decades ago, someone like MTG would have been expelled from the GOP immediately. Now, she's a Republican breakout star on TV and on social media even though she's a first term Congresswoman. Authoritarianism now comes with star power.
6. The point is this: there are huge pressures pushing Republicans toward embracing authoritarian extremism. And here's the problem: there are no countervailing forces. There's nothing that rewards being a sober moderate who believes in democracy and tries to govern by consensus.
7. In fact, the people who try to defend democracy within the GOP become pariahs. Their careers die. So what happens? Even the moderates at heart start acting like zealots because it's the only way to maintain power and stay in good stead in the Republican party.
8. Many thought Jan. 6 would be the breaking point. But it wasn't. In fact, the authoritarian attempts to overturn the election have, if anything, become more mainstream, more of a litmus test for future GOP candidates. "Do you believe Trump won?" is an authoritarian loyalty test
9. Here's the bottom line: nobody has come up with a convincing explanation for how this authoritarian trend reverses itself. That's why, as someone who studies these dynamics for a living, I'm worried that the GOP is becoming irreversibly authoritarian. (Sorry to be depressing)
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It’s called FLUKE: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters.
It’s the most interesting thing I’ve ever written—it drastically changed how I see the world—and I hope you’ll pre-order it. Read what it’s about here: simonandschuster.com/books/Fluke/Br…
Here’s the summary: “In the perspective-altering tradition of Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan comes a provocative challenge to how we think our world works—and why small, chance events can divert our lives and change everything.”
I’ve been lucky enough to receive incredible advance praise for “Fluke” from some ridiculously smart people, including @holland_tom @seanmcarroll @skdh and @jonathangottsch
`1. Researchers have identified a new personality trait that poses a particularly dangerous risk to democracy. It's called the "Need for Chaos."
Let me explain, starting with my favorite hate e-mail I've received. "Dear Brain," it began, a lovely compliment right off the bat...
2. At least he was polite. Anyone who writes about US politics gets these sort of e-mails. They get particularly vitriolic if you’re critical of Trump. They’re much worse if you’re a woman. (I’ve heard horror stories). But here's the thing about them... brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-need-for…
3. Consider the sociology behind them. What do they hope to achieve by calling me a Nazi clown? “Maybe I really am a Nazi clown?” I would wonder, as I cried myself to sleep, clutching the Panzer tank I had made in balloon form? Or maybe, just maybe, they have a Need for Chaos.
1. Fresh genomic evidence has emerged, suggesting that Covid came from a raccoon dog. At the same time, US government agencies have concluded that it came from a “lab leak” accident. We may never know the origin story with certainty. But there’s a bigger story we’re all missing.
2. The story so far is a strange one. New genomic data was discovered recently, by accident. When researchers analysed it, they found clear marches with raccoon dogs. So, they said so. But when they went back to look at the data, it had been removed. brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-missing-…
3. Now, people who are unqualified to understand the data are shouting at each other. The truth is: nobody has perfect certainty. But while we fixate on the origins of Covid, we aren’t thinking about how to prevent the next avoidable pandemic in the future brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-missing-…
1. A few years ago, I wrote about how Trump’s criminality was like being a golden retriever in an exploding tennis ball factory. There’s so much, you’re not sure what to focus on. If there was just one tennis ball, we’d obsess over it. Instead, we end up ranking the criminality.
2. This benefits Trump, partly because our attention is split and you end up forgetting which tennis ball is which (how many investigations are ongoing, again?) and partly because people then say “the hush money payment is just a minor offense.” But that’s a crazy viewpoint.
3. Presidents are supposed to be the best among us. Adopting an attitude that absolves certain minor felonies because “that’s just Trump being Trump” is a ludicrous way to operate a democracy. We should hold our presidents to the harshest standard, not the most forgiving.
Rwanda is a brutal dictatorship that literally hunts down and murders dissidents. Rwandan exiles have been targeted by death squads *in London*. In 2021, the UK government said Rwanda had ignored “allegations of human rights violations including deaths in custody and torture.”
Here’s Human Rights Watch page, which says Rwanda’s government produces “enforced disappearances and suspicious deaths of government opponents. Arbitrary detention, ill-treatment, and torture in official and unofficial detention facilities is commonplace” hrw.org/africa/rwanda