1. There are a lot of people in political science today complaining that John Eastman is speaking at APSA 2021 and suggesting APSA should do something about it. My opinions of Eastman and his memo are exactly what you'd expect given my past writing washingtonpost.com/outlook/a-cyni… But ...
2. The complaints - if they are more than just popcorn throwing, don't seem particularly deeply thought out. I say this as someone who has co-chaired an APSA meeting in the past but has no current role in the organization beyond membership and is speaking purely as an individual.
3. The first point is that APSA-as-an-organization has much less power over who does or does not attend its meetings than people seem to believe. There are some theme panels that the chairs can put together, and other places where there is a little wriggle room ...
4. But most of the panels are put together by sections and other organized groups. APSA leadership, the meeting chairs and others don't have any direct say on who is invited and who isn't. There aren't - as best as I know - any formal procedures for vetoing controversial speakers
5. That leads to an obvious question: should there be such procedures? Maybe! But obviously, there are going to be tradeoffs, when you delegate that power to officials, elected or otherwise, who may or may have different priorities from some or all of the members.
6. So are there other things you could do? Maybe you could change the procedure under which APSA treats "associated groups" - which aren't organized sections but can get a couple of panels. Eastman is speaking because the Claremont Institute has an associated group.
7. That too has tradeoffs. Obviously, it won't do anything about Eastman right now. And if you make it harder to become an associated group, you potentially shut off the opportunity for a wide variety of smaller interests to participate in the conference.
8. A third possibility is to change APSA from a professionally focused organization to one that explicitly holds to some normative or ethical standard - perhaps a shared commitment to democracy. That is the most attractive potential reform for me personally.
9. But again - tradeoffs. What will a shared democratic commitment look like after it has been processed through the sausage factor of a profession with widely varying but strongly held understandings of what democracy is? And would it protect against anti-democratic individuals?
10. How would it work practically? Through some legal bar type process, where those who are held to have breached the professional standards would be disqualified and excluded? Would there be appeals procedures? Might this be weaponized in unanticipated ways?
11. There may be good answers to these questions. But again, they are likely to involve messy and painful tradeoffs and costs. And if you want to get past Twitter condemnations, you need to start thinking about which tradeoffs are acceptable, and which aren't.
12. (in fairness, that is a discussion that is hard to have in chunks of 280 characters or less). So my point is this. If condemnations of APSA for allowing Eastman to present are just a backhanded way of signaling in public that Eastman ought be shunned, OK.
13. That doesn't really present an accurate picture of how APSA works, or what power APSA leadership or convention chairs have - but maybe accuracy and practicability are irrelevant to what the speech is trying to convey (a generalized refusal of assent to him being there).
14. If, instead, these condemnations are meant as serious suggestions for action or reform (or the beginnings of them), people ought at the least explain what APSA ought to do, and think through the side-effects and possible unanticipated consequences.
15. And if they care deeply about this, they should start drafting proposals that specify what they think needs to be done, and the reforms that would allow it to be done, and start canvassing for these proposals.
16. My sense is that APSA's decision making process is not fantastic - but 80% of that is member apathy. When a substantial number of members coalesce around something, people pay attention, because they have to (the organization depends on member dues). Finis.
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1. A thread on this comparison by @michaelbd of Orban's Hungary with De Valera's Ireland nationalreview.com/2021/08/hungar…. As said earlier, I don't think that the comparison works. Here's why- for the huge audience for 20th century Irish history/ 21st century Hungary politics crossovers.
2. Dougherty's argument is that Orban - like De Valera - is the leader of a small country trying to preserve itself in the face of a big hostile world. And that explains much of Orban's strategy and his appeal. There are some things that explains - but much more that it does not.
3. First - as Dougherty says, Orban is genuinely popular, as Dev was. And he could go further. One reason for Dev's success was that he offered a different and more populist conservatism as an alternative to the then frugal "Treasury View" type Cumann na nGaedheal government.
1. A thread, responding to a series of complaints about political science by @BrankoMilan which seem to me to be generally quite wrong-headed. Note before beginning - while I've only the most tenuous personal acquaintance with him, I think his work is very good and use it.
with the suggestion that political scientists were caught "totally flat-footed when Piketty produced a slew of cross-country data showing the transformation of labor parties into the parties of an educated elite."
complaining that political scientists did not seem interested in studying "comparative democracy & voting patterns" outside 20 odd developed countries. Both tweets provoked howls of outrage
1. So this went up yesterday - preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2021/0… - and I'm very happy with it - @seanmcarroll questions and sense of how the various arguments pulled together meant that I sound far more coherent than I usually feel.
2. As noted in the interview, anything genuinely intelligent-sounding that I said should likely be attributed to the co-authors whom I am leaning on heavily throughout. We discussed work with Cosma Shalizi, with @hugoreasoning and Melissa Schwartzberg, and with Marion Fourcade .
3. Also, by sheer coincidence (the interview took place a couple of months ago), we talked about the main themes of a report by @schneierblog and I that @SNFAgoraJHU published yesterday on the current state of American democracy. It's here - snfagora.jhu.edu/publication/re…
1. Some repercussions from this that may not be obvious to non-academics. This is going to be a very big blow to the University of North Carolina. Universities live in a reputation system - and UNC has just taken a big hit to its credibility.
2. First - the Board has substantially damaged the university's ability to attract good professors. If you are a young professor, and you are lucky enough that you can choose among a couple of tenure track jobs, you are going to be less likely to want to go to to UNC.
3. Why would you want to gamble on the decision of a board of trustees that has to approve your tenure case, and will shoot down candidates because of their politics? It's an additional risk - especially in a country where political controversies can come out of nowhere.
1. Kim Stanley Robinson has just posted his response - this completes the seminar that we've been running on his new book, The Ministry for the Future. crookedtimber.org/2021/05/14/res… . The contributions to the seminar, in order of publication were:
2. The initial organizing post, introducing the seminar, and with links to all the individual posts is here - crookedtimber.org/2021/05/03/the…
3. @OlufemiOTaiwo on the different trajectories of change depicted in the US and India, and what that says about global power and our collective imagination crookedtimber.org/2021/05/03/wha… .
1. So an important story I've been waiting to see someone write up properly, and haven't, yet: How Fox News Grandpa Got His Jab. The numbers tell us that older Americans are getting vaccinated in high numbers. But lots of them are conservative Republicans. So what gives?
2. First - the numbers According to the CDC - usafacts.org/visualizations… - approx. 83% of Americans between the ages of 65-75 and 80% between 75-85 have gotten at least one shot. That is a thumping majority of a demographic that has tended Republican and has lots of Fox viewers.
3. There are obvious obvious provisos with trying to extrapolate too far. There may be problems with the CDC data. It's trying to capture the overall population, not the voting/politically-engaged/political-tv-watching population. And you can add your own to your heart's content.