Thread by @Annaisaac

Some crazy trade lines coming out of the US trip.

(1) we already knew US had downed tools in trade talks with U.K. It was made clear talks were on ice until the NIprotocol was working effectively/no longer a source of tension.

Made post-consent vote before any move likely. 1/x

That’s December 2024. So calm down.

I saw some drafting from talks previous admin. There was a way to go EVEN THEN (several chapters still not agreed) even before Biden took office, even if a deal under Trump was considerably more likely. 2/x google.com/amp/s/www.poli…

As for USMCA (aka the new NAFTA) - a deal which includes Canada and Mexico.

I would ask that people stop working off the logic that bilateral deals with some members means you can easily join a group deal.

Really. Stop. 3/x

Because that’s going to be something we hear a lot of W.CPTPP.

The U.K. struggled to negotiate (because it’s hard!) to get rollovers in place with Canada and Mexico. E.g. replicating the deals.

There’s a huge effort to try and get those improved upon. 4/x

And those are deals the U.K. already has.

At least there’s a route to join CPTPP.

There are not - according to sources - ongoing trade negotiations with the US atm.

And no accession route for USMCA. 5/x

Perhaps questions could be asked about ambitions to join USMCA, when talks that were near to agreement with New Zealand (CPTPP Member!) have hit some pretty sticky problems on market access. 6/ends