Tom Shugart Profile picture
Sep 22, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
A dog cemetery. One of your listed "750 bases" is a dog cemetery.
And apparently Naval Base Guam isn't one naval base, it's 12!

And the Naval Hospital is a "base", too!
Even by the source document's absurd standards, the number of "bases" is 439, with 300+ yet smaller facilities called "lily pads", or even "unconfirmed".

Yet @QuincyInst trumpets "750 bases". 🤔
Oh hey, the New Sanno Hotel in Tokyo is a "base", too. It's a hotel. For US military and govt, but it's a hotel.
Anyone care to guess if "Yokohama No Dock Navy" and "Yokohama North Dock" is double-counting basically the same thing?

This is what two "overseas U.S. bases" looks like.
Ok, enough, you get the idea.

Sad thing is, there're reasonable arguments to be made that we have too many bases, or that they're in the wrong places, or aren't set up to do the right things. But bad data trumpeted in support of an agenda IMO isn't a great way to make the point.
UPDATE: Wow. Just...wow.

Quite the research program there at @QuincyInst.

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More from @tshugart3

Mar 5
This is complete nonsense. Literally the only ships I've seen going through the Strait are Iranian and those indicating their crews are Chinese.

And we don't "control" the SoH at all right now. Having Sea Control means that you get to use a particular waterway...
...at most times and most places, without significant fear of attack. The U.S. does not currently appear to have Sea Control of the SoH, and if anything Iran appears to be executing Sea Denial based on the lack of traffic.
Regardless of the SoH, due to the internationalization of shipping even if the U.S. did control the SoH, that does not mean a blockade of China. Ships can change flags, cargoes can be rerouted or even sold en-route.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 2
🚨🚨🚨 This jumped out at me too.

From @USCC_GOV testimony today: U.S. naval intelligence assesses the PLA Navy is shifting from mostly-diesel-electric to ALL-NUCLEAR submarine construction.
See for yourself here in RADM Brookes' testimony: uscc.gov/hearings/part-…
Other highlights: while the U.S. submarine industrial base struggles to meet it production goals, the PRC's submarine production capacity has increased 2-3X since 2010. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 7
I’m excited to share that @ChinaMaritime has just released a short paper I co-wrote with Mike Dahm titled “Flooding the Zone: The Use of Civilian Landing Craft (LCTs) in PLA Amphibious Operations”.

digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/18/
This paper follows the surprising observation last year that the PLA appears to be using civilian “LCTs” - a civilian derivative of WWII landing craft - to go straight to the beach in practice landing exercises.
Here are our key takeaways in the report: Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 28, 2025
Ok, continuing on this thread on the 2025 CMPR...
...first up, China's nuclear warhead totals. This year's report says that warhead production has slowed, with a total in the low 600s, but that the PLA is still on track to have 1000+ warheads by 2030. Image
Regarding China's early warning capability, we get a lot more specificity than I've seen before: that China now has IR warning satellites that can detect and warn of an incoming ICBM within minutes. Image
Read 25 tweets
Dec 28, 2025
Last week saw the release of the 2025 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s Congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open-source data.

So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report: Image
I'll focus on those things that I thought were most noteworthy: significant changes from previous reports, reveals of information not previously seen in the open-source world, etc.

Where there is a point of comparison I'll have the new report on the left, older on the right. Image
Image
The new report is fairly different: for one thing, it clocks in at 100 pages to the previous report's 182.

From the top, the preface differs: the 2024 report's reads mostly like an intel product, where there's more proclamation of administration policy in the new one. Image
Image
Read 26 tweets
Oct 27, 2025
PRC SEALIFT UPDATE: based on a review of satellite imagery & AIS data from recent landing exercises, it appears China is practicing using dual-use civil-military landing craft for direct beach assault.

Of note, while info is sparse, these ships appear to exist in large numbers. Image
To the details: for a few years now, we've seen what've been known as "deck cargo ships" being used in PLA military transport exercises. Image
Image
For details, see the work of analysts like Conor Kennedy... digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/4/
Read 24 tweets

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