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Liam Donovan Profile picture
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22 Sep, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This is the reality beneath all the appeals to process and norms and it amounts to a pretty weak argument for not availing themselves of the clearest/cleanest option.
If you are mad that Dems are put in the position of having to do this extremely inconvenient thing--and that's entirely fair--the silver lining is that it's an opening to kick this thing so far out into the innumerate ether that you don't have to worry about it again.
The debt limit is a nuclear political hot potato at this point and we'd all be better off without its semi-regular dramatic arc in our politics, so why not seize the opportunity.
This guy gets it

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More from @LPDonovan

Liam Donovan Profile picture
24 Sep
This has all the makings of mods pledging to vote for a House marker bill in order to free the BIF hostage.
We knew as far back as August that final passage was not possible in September. The only way you could squint and make it work was figure progs would accept House passage. That made sense until Pelosi promised to spare Mods on anything w/o Senate approval. This amounts to a swap.
Mods got two things out if Pelosi in the last showdown: passage on 9/27, and "one vote" on a consensus package. With no consensus package coming any time soon, they essentially get to pick one or the other. (All of this assumes Progs fall in line.)
Read 11 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
24 Sep
The original reason was because both sides were convinced the other was going to knife them the minute they got what they wanted. Pure MAD/leverage. At this point it's mostly an ego-driven impediment to resolving this, except as a futile tool to force Sinemanchin to bargain.
It really did make sense at the time because there was no other way to unite the clans.
Problem is they picked the wrong hostage. Which I think at some level Pelosi knew and was trying to maintain some flexibility to pass BIF after showing nominal reconciliation progress.
Read 8 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
24 Sep
The escalating string of impossible to keep promises is pretty wild. Do anything to get out of the next jam and worry about the one after that when it comes.
Not a shock given what Yarmuth teased, and probably necessary to have any shot at success on Monday, but even if it can be done, not (currently)!compatible with previous promises.
You're basically throwing a Hail Mary here and hoping that Manchin and Sinema even bother going up to catch it before it falls to the turf. And if they don't, can you even get to 218?
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
19 Sep
The @ThePlumLineGS option
For the record this accomplishes very little except as a minor face-saving exercise, though at this point that's kind of the whole ballgame.
Once the bill passes, it's going Biden's desk, period. It's just a matter of time. There's no actual mechanism for extorting the mods. All it would do is allow progs to lay down their weapons for nominal commitment from mods to support reconciliation, which they already have.
Read 5 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
18 Sep
Inconvenient/indisputable reality. Dems are understandably frustrated to be put in this position, but even they don't dispute that they have the ability. Might be reckless, definitely unprecedented, but not wrong, and not at all clear why Rs would back down.
Once you account for the fact that Ds can do this (whether or not they'd prefer to,) R incentives are pretty straightforward. Bringing a ton of attention to the scale of current & future debt, even as a procedural matter, helps their argument/complicates Dems' internal sales job.
Layer on the fact that for the vast majority of these guys you'd get more heat for supporting the increase/facilitating a multi-trillion dollar Dem effort than you would from opposing and it's not all that complicated. kentucky.com/news/politics-… Image
Read 7 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
17 Sep
Forcing a lapse in the highway program is definitely one way to show You Mean Business. Let's see how it works out for them.
None of this is surprising of course, but really underscores why leadership was so pissed at mods. Whether they were going to quietly sneak this through or not, forcing their hand led progs to dig in to a position they may not be able to back out of. politico.com/news/magazine/… Image
Wildly counter-intuitive, but given the fundamental trust problem at play, the best thing you could do here is find a fig leaf, declare victory, and release the hostage. Chaos & infighting inherently accrue to GOP's benefit (which explains everything about their current posture.)
Read 6 tweets

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