Sometimes a countersample is better than the explanation

So, let's go Counterfactual

We'll design an outbreak
It'll have the supposed height of Spain's 5th wave with Gompertz develope observed in waves all around the world, as brilliantly showed by @MLevitt_NP2013

Positivity:
We set the 5th wave 16 weeks span for trying 3 testing scenarios

A constant testing floor, increased with tracing, depending on cases found

The ACTUAL testing policy used in Spain's 5th wave, politically decided, for the other 2

We'll check their dot clouds&linear regressions
This is the SUPPOSED policy used: we do more test cos we found more cases

We notice Cases/Tests look UNRELATED

Very different cases results for similar test numbers: it reflects the test policy divergences with the outbreak developing underneath
ACTUAL policy: test policy growing and decreasing with epidemic-like shape, with the incredible ability to EXACTLY FORESEE gradients, length and turning point, with PERFECT timing

Even though, underneath epidemic creates anomalies, and cases can't be perfectly linked to testing
Let's check what happens if you FAIL your timings, and mistake true outbreak ongoing by only 1 week, with the actual epidemic replicating policy

Cases and test become clearly unrelated, as true epidemic peak pushes cases up even with lower testing
And now, let's see what we really find with spanish official data

A perfect linear fit
Cases EXACTLY follow tests

We've seen that with a REAL outbreak occurring, it doesn't matter you follow cases, or you plan how cases will develope. Even doing this perfectly, ANOMALIES HAPPEN
The perfect correspondence cases/test can only be explained ONE way: there was NO outbreak ongoing during so-called 5th wave.

For such a perfect fit you need a ~FLAT prevalence, like that you'll expect at AUGUST basal phase.

Spain's 5th wave was definitely a pure TEST ARTIFACT.

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More from @plaforscience

24 Sep
We've studied MANY parameters proving Spain's 5th wave was a completely Human Artifact, let's see one more and it's consequences:

Unfitting between cases and deaths, both created artificially and intentionally to LOOK like an outbreak.

Bad intention, lame performance Image
There's a way to calculate true infections from death data
Basically, there's an statistical known chance to die for each X day after death. If you do it for every death, you'll find the statistical lethal infections at their time
The True Curve

Method ⤵️
In red, official 5th wave deaths
Green, lethal infections to produce them with the known infection/death timing

Full epidemic will be a parallel elevation of this green curve.
Height depends on 1/lethality but shape (trends, peak, bending points) remain exactly the same. Image
Read 10 tweets
22 Sep
Para demostrar la falsedad de la 5 Ola pueden valer más los contraejemplos que la explicación.

La perfecta correspondencia IA/test es excusada por el trøll covidiano como un milagroso éxito de adaptación del número de test a los casos.

Creemos un Brote y veamos.
Utilizaremos la longitud y altura de la 5ª en semanas, y la distribución de Gompertz, que @MLevitt_NP2013 ha demostrado brillante y definitivamente para las olas de todo el mundo.

Su resultado de Positividad queda quedaría así.

Probaremos 3 estrategias de test
Una es la respuesta inevitable del trøll: se hacen más test cuando se encuentran más casos. Sobre un suelo, se añade el rastreo en función de los casos encontrados

Las otras son la política real de test española, aplicada en 2 momentos distintos
Read 9 tweets
21 Sep
Los límites Covid son arbitrarios e inalcanzables
Ved la gráfica/chiste Riesgo de Rebrote de Cataluña

El enano tamaño de los límites sitúa 1 año ENTERO, en el que tuvimos de todo, en la estratosfera del riesgo

Hasta 20x el MÁXIMO

Valores inútiles, sin relación con la epidemia Image
Así todo

La incidencia que cualquier año hubiera sido NO Epidémica sería un mínimo de riesgo MEDIO en todo el país. Para Canarias, valores inferiores a los científicamente considerados epidemia cualquier otro año, serían RIESGO MUY ALTO (máximo) Covid

Image
Porque esos límites arbitrarios no se eligieron para medir, anticipar o contagiar la Pandemia

Se eligieron para no ser alcanzables y mantener el miedo muy alto, para generar frustración y sensación de fracaso, que se dirige sobre los grupos que se desea presionar: los culpables
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
Disproportion
Grotesque disproportion
Vicious disproportion

That's Covid essence

This is a Cataluña Region graph with their own bombastic parameter (outbreak risk) limits

They're PERMANENTLY dwarved by Reality, despite completely different situations occurred.

A USELESS tool Image
Of course the region has NOT being at extreme risk during the whole last year, from August '20
No medical consequences, like hospital pressure or deaths easy over an extreme limit

Important DECREASES are grossly over the outbreak danger limit:
An impossible to accomplish fantasy
What is the use for limits, meant to explain, foresee & control Pandemic; that are constantly overpassed at so high levels, that they render ludicrous and useless all the way thru?

It definitely CAN'T be Epidemic watch, as its own curve shows:
Everyday is Armageddon

It wasn't
Read 10 tweets
21 Sep
Líder o chusma.
Piensa bien quién eres.

La Organización de las Naciones Unidas se ha encontrado con un problema por culpa de las restricciones Covid. Sus reuniones celebradas en Nueva York deben realizarse según las exigencias, paranoicas en ese Estado, de la Pandemia.
Una de ellas, el infame Pase Covid obligatorio.

Pero claro, entre los líderes mundiales hay algunos que NO están vacunados y otros lo están, pero no con las vacunas kosher para Estados Unidos. Así que habría que prohibirles el acceso. A la plenaria de las Naciones Unidas.
Como eso no se le hace a un líder mundial, lo sabe todo el mundo, han encontrado una solución, no sé si me humillante o descarada.

Los Líderes se regirán por un Sistema de Honor, que básicamente supone que se saltan a la torera la exigencia de Pase, y van donde tengan que ir.
Read 12 tweets
19 Sep
Los No Vacunados son un elemento importante en la comunidad:

En servicio de la Ciencia se exponen valerosamente al Todopoderoso Covid para servir como Grupo de Control.

¡Apoya a tus No Vacunados locales! Image
Puede resultar un concepto extraño, tras 18 meses pasando de la Ciencia en cuanto a supervisar con grupos de control la efectividad de todas y cada una de las restricciones y medidas, incluso ignorando los existentes: como Suecia

La ley Covid: lo que diga el modelo (del miedo)
Es el momento de que algunos mantengan esa llama científica, esa Flor de Generosidad, esa gallarda indiferencia en Primera Línea de Pandemia, en la trinchera frente al terrorífico virus con 0,2% de mortalidad

Como Liquidadores de Chernobyl merecen todo nuestro cariño y respeto
Read 4 tweets

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