1. This is a good listen but the most important factor for the energy transition was barely mentioned which was the backup Energy system. This is the factor that will make or break the energy transition. A reliable back up system.
https://twitter.com/columbiauenergy/status/1440762582319599619
2. In a push towards renewables, it’s intermittency means a back up system is needed much more and also needs to be much bigger in size. The U.K. saw prices over $3000/ MWh and a significant factor was the loss of its wind generation system.
3. The U.K. has. a 20GW metered system but during the last 3 weeks it was producing less than 3GW. That means the back up system needed to be 17 to 20GW. This is far bigger than if the U.K. lost a nuclear power plant (biggest is 3.2GW) or a Gas Plant (biggest is 1.9GW).
4. But as renewables generation capacity increases therefore the size of the back up will also need to grow as well because when the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine as with the U.K., the whole renewable system will be affected. This will be a massive cost
5. Batteries are mooted as a possible solution as a back up system. But is it really feasible to install a 17GWh or larger battery system that covers 3 weeks of demand? After all there is no excess renewable power to recharge them at night.
6. Natural gas is a necessary backup system but it also needs to be reliable. Storage is a necessary factor and as renewables capacity grows, natural gas storage must grow as well to be able to cover any loss. Because the downtime for the renewable is unknown and unpredictable
7. Currently natural gas also has its own back up in Europe in the form of coal and oil. In the transition it is likely to lose those therefore the gas system must be even more reliable as a back up system than it is as the current primary system. Nothing to fall back on
8. Texas in February proved the problem of an unreliable backup system. After wind power was lost, the Reliability of the gas system was compromised by a lack of winterization. The back up system needs to be better specified and maintained than the primary system.
9. The U.K. back up system worked. It was relatable.and there was never any shortage of gas. Europe’s gas storage was over 60% full and the UKs was nearly 100% full. Price spikes was based on a future event that was not guaranteed to occur - a cold winter
10. But the U.K. system May not be reliable in a cold winter. It’s storage levels are significantly lower than other countries. It holds only about 35bcf compared to Germany’s 780 bcf and Italy’s 680bcf. It relies on on time production.
11. That size is not feasible to continue if renewables become a larger part of the U.K.“baseload” generation. All storage in Europe must be reevaluated particularly if investment in natural gas is reduced because of poor policy decisions and investor pressure.
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