Found a homeless guy on my lawn today.

I ended up going outside and having a 20 minute long conversation with him.

My takeaways:

1) it’s a lot easier to have a policy for homelessness if you never have to have a face to face conversation with them as people.

1/n
2) Austin and Texas banned public camping and he told me this has been a problem for him but that he had a solution.

3) His solution is move farther out. I told him “well what about coming in to get food etc?”. He said that’ll be a problem but he can solve with a battery

2/n
(I was halfway thorough writing this thread and my kid had explosive diarrhea)

3) (continued) he needed a battery for his electric razor scooter. His backup was to live by a river where there are fish. To me this sounds impossible and that he’s not going to be able to camp.

3/n
4) How’d he become homeless? First explanation was that he made bad investments in the oil and gas industry. He said he was a salesman who was very good and I believe that because he was eloquent, handsome, and charming. But later he admitted that he loved to party hard.

4/n
He was missing all his front teeth so I think what really did him in was actually drugs.

5) I asked him what his plan was and it was to get a job and he was certainly smart enough to hold one but when I asked him for his email and phone number he didn’t have a phone # and

5/n
Not only could he not figure out his email address but he gave me the impression that he was pretty dyslexic and had terrible computer skills. Basically there is no way he’s getting a job to do anything but general labor.

6) he was born in 1964 and was 56 but seemed

6/n
pretty healthy and said he had a 5 year old son and 3 past wives. He seemed like he was good with the ladies. In fact, I think the reason why he was sitting on my lawn was he had just been kicked out of a hotel for the homeless for getting in a fight with his girlfriend.

7/n
7) I took a call during our conversation about a bike I have held at a local store. He offered to sell me a bike because he has many including a nice Schwinn back in his hotel, which almost certainly is stolen if it exists.

8) he was surrounded by trash on the sidewalk

8/n
by my lawn and after our conversation closed and he saw me pick up some trash on my lawn, he actually cleaned up everything which I really respect.

Conclusion: he’s a dude. I’m a dude. He knew he had made some mistakes and he’s in a tough situation that I don’t see him

9/n
solving. It’s sad. I feel like without drugs he’d be wayyyy better off, but I don’t know, maybe it’d just be drink instead.

That’s it. Life is tough and it will chew you up and spit you out if you let it.

10/10
11/10 I think the public camping ban will work for Texas and Austin. These guys will go to where they can live more easily.

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More from @Molson_Hart

24 Sep
The most interesting graphs from the IATA's monthly air cargo report.

1/n
iata.org/en/iata-reposi… Image
Looks like Europe's demand for air shipping was way lower than the United States', consistent with our money printing, imho.

2/n Image
CTKs = Cargo Tonne Kilometers for air shipping

This is the better report from the IATA: iata.org/en/iata-reposi… Image
Read 9 tweets
23 Sep
Not a stock guy, but here's why I would think twice about buying Amazon shares.

1. Everyone thinks AWS is the huge driver of Amazon profits. It kinda is, but in my opinion amazon marketplace + ads is a better more moaty business

2. At some point, if there is justice in

1/n
this world, Amazon is going to get slapped by the government for doing something antitrust.

3. I think this is one of the reasons why Bezos is out of the business. He knows this is coming and as such, it's not fun anymore

4. After Amazon gets slapped, it's going to

2/n
emasculate them. They're going to lose their mojo, just like Microsoft did between 1996 through 2014. The fear of government regulation/interference really defangs a company and makes it significantly harder to get things done. Bureaucratic rot starts to set in.

3/n
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
Does anyone understand what is going on with Amazon testing requests in Canada, Australia, and other small Amazon markets?

There are a couple of pretty serious issues with this situation:

1/n
1. Unless your product is a super seller, there isn't enough sales on these small Amazon markets to justify spending $300 or so on testing.
2. These tests are the same thing whether it's Canada, USA, Australia, or EU but with minor differences. It's kind of a testing racket.

2/n
3. While I haven't done it myself, I have seen enough from Amazon to know that they'd probably accept fake test results.
4. A lot of labs which are accredited in China by the gov't of the USA actually don't test. Yeah, that's right. They charge really low fees by not testing.
Read 9 tweets
23 Sep
I don't what to say here.

But, basically, there are widely shared pieces on topics like Amazon, pieces that are celebrated as genius.

And these pieces can be ununderstandable to someone who actually operates on Amazon, someone who actually thinks deeply about the platform.

1/n
Amazon review moats are built on sand.

3/n

Read 8 tweets
22 Sep
RIP Thrasio

I've listened to Carlos Cashman and I've listened to this guy and a bad situation has just gotten worse.

Why is Thrasio screwed?

1. E-commerce is getting killed this year because of risings costs
2. They used debt to buy mostly garbage brands

1/2
3. Chinese competition
4. There are ~zero returns to scale (possibly negative actually) to rolling-up Amazon brands for many reasons
5. Everything I've seen from them shows they are not the amazing operators (like me and @michaelpatron0) necessary 2 succeed

RIP Thrasio

2/2
@patrick_oshag the two people whose podcasts I listened to (you have many wonderful ones obviously) that I said were no bueno are Carlos and the Shippo person.
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
I've been picking up too many followers lately, so let me tell you how I'd solve the 14,000 (!) mostly Haitian migrants huddling under a bridge in Del Rio, TX trying to get into the USA.

1/n Image
If I were Biden I would fly down to Del Rio and give a speech in French on loudspeakers (later uploaded to youtube) saying that:

- no one is getting in
- no humanitarian aid (food water etc) will be given
- if you trash in the river you're getting hit with rubber bullets

2/n Image
Biden's current plan is to fly the migrants back to Haiti on the USA's dime.

Why?

That's like saying "don't make it into the US illegally, get a free ride back home" so it incents this behavior, plus it makes it easy for Mexico.

This is a Mexican problem.

3/n
Read 6 tweets

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