Opinions ranged from “There are zero data to support a lab origin ‘notion’… the benefits [of the EcoHealth proposal] far, far outweigh the risk.”
To “This is doing everything that people say is going to cause a pandemic if you do it.”
“I find it really disappointing that one of the members of the joint WHO-China team… investigating this, are actually on this proposal, knew that this line of research was at least under consideration, and didn’t mention it all.” - @jbloom_lab
“Once you make an unnatural virus, you’re basically setting it up in an unstable evolutionary place. The virus is going to undergo a whole bunch of changes to try and cope with its imperfections.”
Also, “Daszak directed and gathered signatures for @TheLancet letter [condemning non-natural origin hypotheses], all the while suggesting that he and his collaborators on the proposed DARPA project, Baric and Wang, distance themselves from the effort.”
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When a new SARSr-CoV with a new cleavage site insertion was causing an outbreak in Wuhan, how many of the scientists involved in the March 2018 DEFUSE proposal remembered their Wuhan colleagues had a roadmap for experimenting with new SARSr-CoVs with new cleavage site insertions?
This proposal to DARPA for $14.2 million, submitted in early 2018, was like the EcoHealth-WIV NIH proposal but on steroids.
Some scientists might argue that the proposal was not successful - DARPA did not fund it. But it doesn't mean it wasn't already ongoing even at the time of proposal.
When you see this level of detail, there's a good chance some preliminary work has been done.
Possible ways for a virus with an ancestral origin in bats to have made its way to Wuhan.
It's good that scientists are finding more bat viruses related to SARS2 in South China/SE Asia, but it still doesn't identify the route by which SARS2 arrived in Wuhan.
Yes, it took about a decade to track the closest bat virus relatives to SARS1.
But only 2 months from isolating the virus to find the proximal animal source in Guangzhou in 2003, and only days in 2004.
Despite less advanced technologies, Chinese investigators rapidly tracked down early cases, likely animal sources, and a well-substantiated path for SARS1 to have been introduced into human beings via the trade of infected animals. ayjchan.medium.com/a-response-to-…
Wish the @cnn@drsanjaygupta special was longer. Must have so much more valuable footage from each of the interviewees. Q&A with @PeterDaszak and Dr Ralph Baric was 👌 Thank you for having me on the show ☄️producer and team!
Take home messages were:
1. No definitive evidence for natural or lab origin - jury still out
2. No actual investigation of lab origin yet
3. Extensive SARS-related virus work done at low biosafety levels
4. Large pathogen database MIA
5. But natural origins still possible
Ancestral bat origin most likely according to most experts and WHO.
Problem is we don’t know how a bat virus evolved and transformed into the SARS2 virus that was detected in Wuhan in December 2019.
It’s difficult to reconcile this interview of the former DNI with the recent declassified summary by the IC. If there is compelling evidence of a lab origin (which I had heard of back in August) then why did the IC agencies largely not reach even low confidence conclusions?
“After inspection of the WIV biosafety laboratory, the WHO–China joint expert group also concluded that the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 through a laboratory incident was “extremely unlikely””
“as mentioned in the phase 1 joint report of the WHO-convened global study of origins of SARS-CoV-2, internal audit is a better alternative for all high-level biosafety laboratories worldwide to further exclude the “laboratory incident” hypothesis.”