Thread by @althecat

As the #UNGA is focused on Climate Change the biosphere is putting on a show. We currently have powerful cyclones in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans and the yet more extreme weather, even though it's now late September.

Thread....

Today I have had a deep look around the globe after very active North Atlantic and a massive United States sized circulating low in Europe - exhibiting some of the same characteristics which resulted in severe flooding in July developed of East Europe.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1440942603441254400?s=20

Here's the big-picture view which includes:
- A cyclone in the West Pacific: forecast to become a Super Typhoon.
- A depression in the Bay of Bengal: forecast to become a Severe Cyclone.
- A hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic: forecast to become a Cat4 Hurricane.

The tropical atmospheric river travels east to west, and we will follow this view before heading north and back East as the Atlantic recycles colossal amounts of water and sends them back across the North Atlantic to Europe.

Here we see 24 hours, West Pacific to India.

24 hours around the Arabian Sea. A low over Myannmar is becoming cyclonic. This is forecast to head West over India, where it is forecast to bring lots of rain, ultimately producing a significant late season monsoon burst west over Pakistan and the Arabia.

And finally we see where a large portion of this water and energy will get recycled over the U.S. and the North Atlantic and flow back into Europe.

So this is what is happening now. We will now move to long range forecasts of what the supercomputers expect will happen over the coming 16 days through to the 10th of October. Again we start in the East. The forecast super-typhoon is not expected to landfall in Japan.

However the thing to notice in this animation of 16 days of precipitable water, is just how much water cyclones elevate into the upper atmosphere.

Here we see a the northern Indian Ocean. Again we see how water generated initially over the Bay of Bengal moves West and lingers.

And finally, the Tropical Atlantic. Here we see the impact of Hurricane Sam. Once water is airborne it has to go somewhere. And in the North Atlantic their are two paths one over the U.S. (then East over NthAtl). The other takes a more direct route towards Europe.

And finally we see how this cycle ends - massive atmospheric waves of water crashing onto Western Europe. Four waves over the next 16 days [Noting that there is already a lot of water over Europe - and water is also coming north over the Western Sahara].

(Finally in terms of the oceans - the next part of this story shows the path of this water back over Eurasia)

This view shows the water/energy picture over Europe.

And here we see Eurasia. In the northern areas some of this water may fall as snow. When wet air encounters cold air it falls as rain or snow.

The next set of images show the forecast accumulated rainfall expected over the next 16 days over most of the occupied land on the planet.

First China, Eurasia and India.

And then in clockwise order around the North Atlantic beginning with North Africa (including ME and East Africa.)

All images show 16 days of accumulated rain. All are from @NOAA's GFS global weather model. A lot of this rain is falling over the oceans.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1441483701234323459/photo/1

And ... Tropical Atlantic, North America, NW Atlantic and NE Atlantic.

A lot of this rain is falling over the Atlantic Ocean.

And finally (completing the circle around Asia) Europe.

So how unusual this is vs what we would normally expect at this time of year? Here we see rainfall anomaly over the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Blue = a big anomaly. On a 16 day horse race the most anomalous areas are NE China, NW India/Pakistan, the ME, East Africa & Sahel.

This shows part of that picture on the same basis. The Atlantic, East North America, Europe, North Africa and the Middle East.

Here we see the total 16 day anomaly in the Western Pacific. North Eastern China, including Beijing and Henan are set to receive a lot of late season un-seasonal rain it seems. This is likely also caused by the late Indian monsoon flareup.

Here we see the area where this late season anomaly is forecast to originate. The Indian Ocean/Subcontinent.

Here we see the Middle East portion of this. The anomaly data you see in these animations starts in seven days time (from beginning of October) and runs for 9 days.

And finally the Europe and North Africa Coast Rainfall Anomaly animation.

And to end. Here's one of the three cyclones we will be tracking in coming days. Hurricane Sam, which is currently forecast to strengthen rapidly in coming days before turning north eastwards towards Europe.

If you are interested in how this #ClimateChangeNow story plays out. Please follow.

/ENDS

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