1/4
“It is no secret that over the years a lot of intellectual capital has been invested in the proposition that massive defaults in the Third World will cause a world financial crisis." Walter Wriston crowed at the 1981 IMF conference.
2/4
But nothing happened, he explained with some satisfaction: "Those who have taken this view since 1973-74 have been proved wrong, and those of us who believed the market would work proved correct.”
3/4
Less than one year later, massive defaults in the Third World were set off by a famous call to the New York Fed by Mexico's Finance Minister, in which he warned that Mexico couldn't make its September debt payments. This, in turn, set off a global financial crisis.
4/4
The lesson? Just because an unsustainable process can run on longer than you might have expected doesn't mean that it isn't unsustainable.

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More from @michaelxpettis

27 Sep
1/13
While I agree with most of what Ruchir Sharma says in this piece, I am more skeptical than he is about the following: "The problem: what happens in China no longer stays in China, which is the main engine of global growth."

ft.com/content/8a2d17…
2/13
While China is the largest arithmetical component of global growth, this doesn't make it the main engine of global growth in any meaningful sense. In a world of excess desired savings, the engine of growth is demand, and not only is China not the biggest source of net...
3/13
demand to the global economy, it is in fact the biggest net absorber of global demand, with monthly trade surpluses of around $50 billion. That is why a crisis in China won't affect the real economies of the rest of the world in the same way as a crisis in the US might.
Read 13 tweets
27 Sep
1/4
At least two local governments in China are seizing pre-sale revenues on Evergrande projects and keeping them separate from other funding sources, so that the money can be returned to homebuyers if the projects for whatever reason aren't completed.

ft.com/content/595c3f…
2/4
This makes sense, although for now if the habit spreads it will put a lot more liquidity pressure on property developers. Pre-sale revenues probably should have been kept in segregated accounts for all property developers from the very beginning in order to protect...
3/4
homebuyers, few of whom can evaluate the credit risks associated with property developers. It would also have given creditors a better understanding of repayment risks. It never made sense to assume that a property developer facing liquidity constraints, or one seeking...
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
1/13
Very good article by @greg_ip on the tradeoff China must make between debt and growth. He notes that as China tries to repress investment in non-productive areas, “If this ultimately funnels credit to more productive uses, that would be...
wsj.com/articles/everg… via @WSJ
2/13
positive for Chinese growth in the long run.” He then suggests that Beijing might find it harder than ever to do this because of its recent efforts to “to rein in market forces, steer the flow of capital and restrict how entrepreneurs and investors make profits.”
3/13
He’s probably right, but I would add that even without these recent efforts, funneling credit to more productive uses was always much easier said than done. In the first place the amount of investment that has to be funneled from less productive uses, like...
Read 13 tweets
23 Sep
1/14
Very thoughtful (as usual) piece by @adam_tooze on observing the Evergrande observers. He asks, at the end, "What if this is actually what a shifting of economic gears looks like?"

adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-on…
2/14
I think Evergrande is more of a premonition of the shifting of gears than the beginning. What typically seems to happen with the high-savings/high-investment development model is that countries start off with many years of high growth and low debt, but as they close...
3/14
the gap between actual investment and desired investment (i.e. the amount of investment they can productively absorb), rather than adjust the model they typically maintain high investment rates.
Read 14 tweets
22 Sep
1/4
Damned if you do, damned if you don't: "At least eight cities in mainland China have come up with measures to prevent developers from offering excessively cheap homes to stabilise the market and prevent a collapse in prices."
scmp.com/business/china… via @scmpnews
2/4
The article lists many ways in which local officials fear that lower housing prices would be harmful to the economy, including its adverse impact on local government revenues. They are right, of course, but the alternative – ever rising prices – is worse in the medium term.
3/4
This problem emerged over a decade ago, or at least that's how long I have been writing about it, but even when it finally became clear to everyone that soaring housing prices were a problem, the costs of resolving it always seemed higher than...
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep
1/6
This FT article suggests that foreign investors can help prop up the US Treasury market as the Fed begins to cut back on its bond buying, but I disagree. I would argue that this idea of foreign "support" of the US bond market is based...
ft.com/content/47551b…
2/6
on viewing US debt incrementally, rather than systemically.

An important series of papers by @profsufi, @AtifRMian and @ludwigstraub have already shown that in the US, when rising income inequality causes an increase in the savings of the...
scholar.harvard.edu/files/straub/f…
3/6
rich, this paradoxically does not lead to more US savings but rather to more US debt among lower income Americans. I argued in my 2013 book that this is because US investment is not constrained at all by scarce savings, and so more savings cannot result in more investment.
Read 6 tweets

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