DISCLAIMER: I am not advocating for war. The possibility of one is remote. This is an educated and factual analysis to convince sceptics how events will play out if the unthinkable happens.
In the event Nigeria has to take back Bakassi..many erroneously site the challenges Nigeria faces with counter insurgency and use it as a yard stick to measure a nations military capability. This is a very flawed line of thought.
When the Boko Haram insurgency started, the Nigerian military was flawed to tackle Boko Haram. Conceptually the focus of the Nigerian military was on conventional warfare and the enemy was an unconventional one. Contemporary weaponry and firepower that can devastate an army
..had little value or utility against this new kind of enemy. In conventional warfare armies take and hold ground, airforces conduct strategic bombing operations and engage the enemy and navies support land forces with offshore attacks and cutting off supply lines.
This is the Nigerian military's way of waging war. With terrorism however the Nigerian military had to deal with irregular forces that practice hit and run guerilla tactics, instill panic and retailliate asymmetrically when, where and how they choose. This is is savage warfare.
It took six years for the Nigerian military figure out that direct attacks on terrorists were useless. It needed robust intelligence and special forces to confront irregular fighters..
Cameroon has 14200 active duty personnel. 12,500 in the army, 1,300 in the navy and 400 in the airforce and 9,000 paramilitary.
By contrast Nigeria's active duty force of 270,000 men. 210,000 in the army, 30,000 in the Navy, 22,000 in the airforce and a 380,000 paramilitary.
By contrast Nigeria's active duty force of 270,000 men. 210,000 in the army, 30,000 in the Navy, 22,000 in the airforce and a 380,000 paramilitary.
The military balance is a mismatch that borders on ridiculous. Cameroon dependended on its treaty with France. French military advisers were involved in preparing the Cameroonian forces for deployment to the contested Bakassi Peninsula. Even at that, despite several skirmishes
Paul Biya took the dispute to the ICJ despite Paris prodding Biya to instigate a confrontation. That was then.
Today the Nigerian military is even bigger, better armed, more sophisticated.
Today the Nigerian military is even bigger, better armed, more sophisticated.
If Nigeria chooses to occupy Bakassi today Cameroon will be hard pressed to stop it. Yes they are well trained and will out up a fight, but unlike against an invisible assymtric enemy with no clearly defined territory, the Nigerian military will be less hesitant
..in employing overwhelming firepower. There are drones and ISR aircafts that can seek out enemy positions and defences undetected for artillery troops. By the time the army launches its 10th volley of heavy artillery on Bakassi, France could just be learning of the attack.
In a matter of minutes Nigeria's artillery force could cripple Cameroons military infrastructure and formations, this will be followed by deployment of troops. Helicopter gunships will be ready for a counter attacks. Chances are they will be spotted by ISR aircaft long before
and get taken out from the air this time. It will be a long range standoff war. The fact we cannot carry out strategic or indiscriminate artillery bombardment against Boko Haram doesnt mean we cant employ them on a clearly defined target.
The Nigerian army has over 400 Tanks..90% of which are collecting dust in their shelter, save for a few dozen deployed in the northeast. Cameroon has none. Over the last couple years Nigeria has developed the capabilities needed to support military operations at range.
The naval blockade of Gambia in 2017 is a prime example. If heavy weapons were needed the navy has tank landing ships that can deploy tanks and heavy amour on the shores of Gambia..thats a country hundreds of miles away
This is all hypothetical. But in the real sense if the Nigerian army wants to seize and occupy Bakassi it can do that within hours or days. It will simply be impossible for Cameroon to supplant Nigeria's manpower and resources. Neither will France intervene directly.
..militarily or otherwise. It will be politically too damaging to enter direct confrontation with Africa's biggest country on home turf.
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