At the turn of the 20th century, the UK government decided that they couldn’t see a path forward for fixed wing aircraft and invested their attention into lighter than air vehicles instead.

ben-evans.com/benedictevans/…
In this super interesting article, @benedictevans talks about how a lot of early innovations are dismissed as experiments or toys. Something competitors do with much regularity, clouded by their “superior” understanding of the market.
The canonical version of this is Kodak, who helped pioneer the digital camera, but failed to see a world where digital would overtake analog.
However this article makes the excellent point that many things tbat were written off as experiments and toys were just that, rendering this argument largely pointless. Instead you need to ask “what needs to change” for this invention to become more than just a toy.
In the case of digital photography that was arguably a mix of increasing storage size, reducing hardware cost, increased personal computer ownership and the rise of the internet making digital photos a “social object”.
It’s easy to laugh at the Kodak executives for helping to invent their own demise, but I wonder how many of us would have had the intellectual rigour at the time to cast forwards and see the various economic and social changes that made digital photography a certainty.

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More from @andybudd

27 Sep
There are a few newspapers I’d like to subscribe to but am always surprised by the cost. Partly because I’ve been trained by Spotify and Netflix that ~£10 pm for something I use a lot represents good value for money.
By contrast most newspaper subscriptions are over £30 pm. This seem to be based on the assumption that those taking out a digital subscription buy the physical paper every day, rather than somebody like me who buys one a couple of times a week.
I’d be happy paying £10 pm for a couple of newspaper subs, or £5 a month for a subscription that gave you access to 20 articles, but paying 3-5 times the cost of a Netflix or Spotify sub always feels slightly steep to me considering usage.
Read 14 tweets
24 Sep
Somebody asked me recently which UK University courses I’d recommend to somebody wanting to break in to product design, and I was really at a loss.
Institutions like @RCA @GoldsmithsUoL @csm_news @RavensbourneUK probably have the best reputations, while institutions like @FalmouthUni @SODAmcr and @KingstonUni are trying their best, but I’ve always felt a little underwhelmed by the offering we have in the UK.
Every degree course I see feels like it was designed in the early 00s when UX was trending and Web Design was still a thing, while the lecturers seem more interested in pursuing funding and obscure areas of research, than teaching useful, practical skills.
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep
I regularly see managers complain about the performance of certain individuals who then go on to be outstanding performers at their next job. I’ve come to the realisations that the problem generally lies with the manager rather than the person being managed.
It’s true that many of these individuals have a tendency to coast. Doing what they’ve been asked to do, and no more. I used to think that the problem was with the individual for being unmotivated, and I think that is part of the story.
However a good manager should provide structure and guidance for these sort of individuals as they often don’t understand what’s expected. To coach, mentor, support and challenge them into doing their best work possible. Instead they often act like absentee landlords.
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
I’ve been enjoying reading this book about the contemporary art market. As a result, here are my predictions about NFTs. A photo of the book Boom: M...
We’re currently in a super early technology driven gold rush, during which time a lot of mediocre NFT art will be created and sold for sold for seemingly random prices.
Some early NFTs with historic significance will continue to hold their value. Some new NFT artists will appear, but most of the art created during this phase will end up worthless.
Read 16 tweets
12 Sep
It’s almost always simple (if you already know the answer), but never easy (because it involves convincing other people).
The hardest thing in tech isn’t knowing the right thing to do. It’s figuring out how to get people to do it (and follow through with conviction)
Doing the right thing usually means doing something different to what you’re currently doing. This involves both risk and effort on the part of others, for often limited personal reward.
Read 7 tweets
9 Sep
I see so many designers take roles in well established teams, only to leave 18 months later because they were unable to affect any meaningful change.
They were somehow surprised that joining an established product team with established processes and an established backlog of work, somehow took the creativity and joy out of the role.
Designers, if you truly want to make an impact, consider joining a start-up as their Founding Designer, before the processes have ossified. It'll be scrappy, it'll be messy and you'll have plenty of channeling conversations with the founders. But the potential is much larger.
Read 5 tweets

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