When I was a kid trying to get a gig on Wall Street a lot of firms pushed me to the side. But there was one firm that really believed in me, encouraged me and played a big role in my development (even though I never worked there).
This firm is First New York. I am fairly familiar with the culture and the type of traders they push out. Lots of core solid cold blooded killers such as @moreproteinbars and others.
But there was one trader’s story that just always stood out to me. If you guys ever read the last Market Wizards book, the story of Jimmy Balodimas is an extremely unique one.
Balodimas was a trader at FNY who was profitable for years trading an extremely difficult strategy.
He implemented a discretionary based mean reversion strategy fighting against strength.
Although an asset would be trending up, Balodimas traded short around a core position and ended up net profitable each year for 15 years straight.
Balodimas is a great example of a strategy being a “fit” for the trader. There are thousands of strategies that are out there but they have to be a fit psychologically for the manager or they will never work.
This is a crazy fact, but I learned to short a stock before I ever learned to buy one. It’s a weird mentality and I’m not sure why I developed it, but I have a hard time remaining long a stock (thankfully I’m a vol trader). I can comfortably trade intraday momentum flow,
but if you ask me to carry overnight long equity exposure my brain turns to mush and I become uncomfortable doing that. Yet I understand that is wrong, and I am fully outspoken about how investors should participate in this bull market.
I could never be a value investor, nor a trend investor. It’s not that these outlooks are wrong, it just doesn’t fit me personally as a trader.
If you ask me to be short VIX uncovered overnight, or long $KO outright overnight, I’ll explain to you the risk is the same....
Statistically speaking it is evident that one carries a heavier risk profile so this view is statistically incorrect.
However, my discretion as a trader dismisses the data as my mind is conditioned to think “risk management first, everything else second”.
As traders we need to be aware of changes in the market and we should always be thinking about adapting to these changes. We often see others jumping on the bandwagon to every shiny new toy (strategy) that comes around.
There’s a difference between adapting to a change
and constantly switching things just to follow the hottest strategy or trend.
Find an edge, and implement a strategy that works for you. If it’s not a psychological fit... it probably won’t work for you.
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Interestingly enough, the largest vol events did not come from a cheap smile or a rich smile. The smile always was in an area that signified "not too rich" "not too cheap" on a historical lookback. Why is that ?
Here's the reality, the largest blowups come from two-way price action, not directly from one way flow. What the heck does this mean?
Lets take cov-19 for example. Positioning on the street was one sided as there were a ton of hidden basis risk with vol sellers.
”I love being long convexity but it would be better if it came cheaper. We are left trying to be creative using the vol surface or relative value relationships where we can”
Bingo !
The time to be long outright vol are on those days where vol of vol is getting destroyed and nobody wants to touch it. When you are faced with these environments (rising vol) it becomes much more difficult to structure things with value.
Having potential investors and trading friends reach out to hear my thoughts on current market state. I thought it would be helpful to share with you guys.
I hate engaging in the fear mongering nonsense, especially with the Evergrande situation being such a "hot topic" 🙄
anyways, there def was some impact from a positional standpoint going into Opex. This coupled with the fact that people are fearful about the knock on effects of the defaults in China are clearly moving markets but I personally believe there is something more relevant brewing.
The debt ceiling vote has a larger impact directly on the U.S and seems to be something a lot of folks are overlooking.
Yellen came out over the weekend stating that the Treasury's cash balance will be insufficient as of October.
Idea generation is so important. I believe the best forms of alpha stems from regulatory / structural / legal implications.
I believe that the understanding of these factors and the changes that come along with them lead to alpha.
Understanding things like TRACE reporting is crucial when you are trying to identify agents and the moves they are making.
This market has become so complex. Betting a stock will fall because it has bad earnings is just a rookie’s playbook.There is no direct edge in those plays
Can you think about the recent changes in the microstructure that would be impactful to the overall picture.
Most vol guys understand this but there seems to be this disconnect with the rest of the world.
It’s frustrating to see the sell side reports printing that “skew is rich”, “tails are rich”.
Ok..... relative to what ?
Sure if you want to run a 20 year look back and show me that tails are priced rich compared to prices in the early 2000’s, 90’s, etc sure. Great.... but that is not the same market as the market in 2021. This market is completely different.
The microstructure, the regulatory implications, the sentiment, the participants, the agent’s role, even the assets etc. It is a completely different market.
We have seen this market move a few pct in a matter of a few hours. It is a completely different beast.