Thread by @RRHElections

Here's a thread on all 38 districts in the new Texas Congressional map! Our analysis of the map is here: rrhelections.com/index.php/2021…

TX-1 (R+24) is the same rural northeast Texas seat and is plenty safe for Louie Gohmert to do Louie Gohmert things.

TX-2 (R+4-->R+13) is now firmly based northeast of Houston and no longer wraps into the western suburbs. It's a much safer district for rising GOP star Dan Crenshaw.

TX-3 (R+6-->R+9) gets a bit safer for Van Taylor (R) by shedding the most troubling parts of Plano. Trump did horridly in this formerly ruby-red area, but Taylor ran well ahead of him. The seat could have been a point or two safer if it ran further east.

TX-4 (R+28-->R+15) is unpacked as it takes on the problem areas around Plano from TX-3. By some tortured lines, it also keeps its historic base in Rockwall. Safe R, but less overwhelmingly so, for Pat Fallon.

TX-5 (R+16) is virtually unchanged.

TX-6 (R+6-->R+12) drops its longtime base in Arlington and adds blue Irving and deep red rurals to fall off the playing field. Safe R for new arrival Jake Ellzey.

TX-7 (D+1-->D+13) may have been salvageable under a more aggressive plan, but Republicans saw need for a 4th D seat in Houston. The new lines relieve pressure on TX-22 in Fort Bend, and it's comprised of 20-30% of 4 different racial groups.

TX-8 (R+25-->R+15) is unpacked and takes in blue West Harris precincts that had been problematic in TX-2. If R's wanted to make a run at TX-7, this district would have needed to be unpacked even more. It's a Safe R open seat.

TX-9 (D+26) sees minimal change as a Black-plurality seat south of Houston.

TX-10 (R+3-->R+12) becomes much more rural, shedding all of Harris and much of Austin to become Safe R once again for Michael McCaul.

TX-11 (R+29) is still an R vote sink in Midland/Odessa and San Angelo, but dips into Killeen to pick off a few Dems.

TX-12 (R+13-->R+11) is mildly more competitive for Kay Granger but mostly unchanged in western Fort Worth.

TX-13 (R+33-->R+25) dips into Denton County to unpack itself somewhat, but is still a red Panhandle fortress for Ronny Jackson.

TX-14 (R+12-->R+16) drops blue areas of Brazoria to TX-9. Didn't seem to need to become redder for Randy Weber, but it is.

TX-15 (R+1-->R+3) is still 80% Latino--an obvious priority for the mapmakers--but modest shifts mean Trump and Cornyn carried it in 2020. Republicans will hope @monica4congress can unseat Vicente Gonzalez (D) in a rematch on slightly friendlier turf.

TX-16 (D+16) is a virtually unchanged Latino D seat in El Paso.

TX-17 (R+7-->R+13) drops most of its arm to Austin and expands east, while helping to crack Williamson County. It's a safer seat for Pete Sessions.

TX-18 (D+23) is still a Hispanic-plurality seat with a strong Black minority in Houston.

TX-19 (R+25) is still a rural red vote sink around Lubbock.

TX-20 (D+13-->D+15) is a slightly bluer Latino Dem seat in San Antonio.

TX-21 (R+4-->R+12) looks almost identical at first--but it dropped a ton of deep-blue Austin, taking this competitive seat off the table. Chip Roy (R) is secure after two tough races.

TX-22 (R+2-->R+10) is the biggest beneficiary of the decision to concede TX-7, as it drops a big blue chunk of Fort Bend. Republicans may not be entirely out of the woods here (it's only 42% white), but this is about the best they can do for Troy Nehls.

Large and eternally litigated, TX-23 (R+3-->R+6) sees its Hispanic VAP fall to 60% as it takes in less of San Antonio. That's probably sufficient to survive a challenge. Tony Gonzales (R) has a better seat, but could have been made more secure if given Latino-majority Odessa.

TX-24 (D+1-->R+8) was the biggest defensive project for R's after Beth Van Duyne (R) gritted out a win while Biden carried the seat by 5. It drops blue areas of Denton and picks up North Dallas's Park Cities, previously the red heart of TX-32.

TX-25 (R+7-->R+19) wasn't *that* competitive, but Roger Williams is entirely safe now as he pulls out of Austin and takes over Arlington instead. It's surprising this uber-red seat didn't unpack a bit to help neighboring TX-12 (R+11) out.

TX-26 (R+9-->R+11) is still Denton-based, and gets a small bit of help from TX-13. Like TX-3, Trump did horrendously here, but downballot R's didn't suffer.

TX-27 (R+13) is mostly unchanged, as a Latino-plurality R seat based in Corpus Christi.

TX-28 (EVEN-->D+2) could have been targeted on an extremely aggressive plan, but R's would have had a tough time beating moderate Henry Cuellar (D) in a general. Instead, the seat seems designed for Cuellar to lose a primary to a leftist with hopes it will keep drifting right.

TX-29 (D+15) is still a Latino Dem seat in Houston.

TX-30 (D+27) is still a Black-plurality Dem seat in Dallas.

TX-31 (R+3-->R+12) gets some hugely needed help as the map cracks both Williamson and Bell counties. Williamson remains a long-term problem for the GOP, but its most concerning precincts have been pushed into TX-17 and TX-37.

TX-32 (D+3-->D+14) was conceded, as expected, to Colin Allred (D). It helps make both TX-3 and TX-24 safer by soaking up D-trending areas of Dallas and Collin.

TX-33 (D+23) remains a messy Latino Dem seat (although held by Marc Veasey, who's Black) in Dallas and Tarrant.

TX-34 (EVEN-->D+5) was always expected to become more Dem as TX-15 reddened. What's notable is that this seat didn't compress to Cameron/Hidalgo alone, likely out of VRA concerns. The open seat could be on the table by 2030 if Latinos keep moving right.

TX-35 (D+20) is still a messy Austin-to-San Antonio Dem sink that Lloyd Doggett may continue in, but may abandon for TX-37.

TX-36 (R+24-->R+18) takes on a bit more of Houston, but is still a Safe R seat based in rural southeast Texas.

TX-37 (D+24), and in color for maximum effect, is the long-anticipated Safe D Austin sink, which helps take at least 5 Republican seats out of play. The only question here is whether Lloyd Doggett runs here or in the 35th.

TX-38 (R+12) is created from pieces of TX-2, TX-7, and TX-10, and seems tailor-made for @WesleyHuntTX (R), who impressed in his 2020 bid for TX-7.

Overall, Republicans will look to expand their edge from 23-13 to 25-13, with additional upside if Latinos continue to trend R, universal protection against another 5-8 points of suburban drift, and a focus on avoiding VRA litigation. rrhelections.com/index.php/2021…

Rest of the thread picks up here!

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1442551856664875008