As part of our Global Order Colloquium, 'How to See the Future: Forecasting and Global Policy,' we're hosting a workshop to examine methods and applications of geopolitical forecasting.
Our next panel on national security was moderated by former NIC Chair and @USC Professor Gregory F. Treverton, and included insights from @StateDept's Matan Chorev, @ODNIgov's Joe Cyrulik, @CNASdc's @StaciePettyjohn, and PWH Visiting Fellow @ErinSikorsky.
To conclude our colloquium on geopolitical forecasting, we're hosting a virtual event with @brhodes and @vmsalama, with an introduction from @Penn Interim Provost @BethWinkelst. Follow this thread for updates 🧵
.@brhodes starts with a preview of his new book, 'After the Fall,' and how he came to write it. "When I left the Obama admin, where I had spent almost 10 years, it was very disorienting. I traveled to get perspective - I’d noticed the illiberal trends building around the world."
"My new book investigates the rise of authoritarianism and nationalism around the world, and it began with a conversation with a Hungarian anti-corruption activist, who told me how his country went from a democracy to almost an autocracy in a decade."
PWH Director @mchorowitz welcomes our in-person and virtual audiences to @perryworldhouse for today’s conversation with @MaEllenSirleaf. Follow this thread for updates🧵
“Few have better insights on pandemic response and preparedness through her leadership of Liberia through the Ebola crisis,” says @PennNursingDean, introducing this event.
“Penn’s work has touched the shores of West Africa,” says @MaEllenSirleaf. “I urge the professors here to keep @Penn the open house you are to train those from distant lands to go back and serve their countries.”
We're now starting coverage of our conversation with @ODNIgov's Morgan Muir, moderated by @mchorowitz. Follow this thread for updates 🧵
"We have an eye toward longer-term things we need to do to advance American national security interests, to deal with challenges the world faces. We focus on what we are assessing, why we think what we think, how to capture uncertainty as we talk about opportunities," says Muir.
"We use a range of qualitative and quantitative methods to do this. We work with experts in the field, in the academic community; we employ analytic techniques to challenge assumptions. One question is, how do we augment human analysis and expert judgment with machine learning?"
We're starting off live coverage of our event with @MichaelEMann with an intro to his new book, 'The New Climate War.' "The old climate war was conservative media outlets & politicians undermining public understanding of science on climate change, preventing anything being done."
"Now, we can see the impacts of climate change in real time. It’s impacting us in our daily lives with extreme weather events, droughts, it’s no longer theoretical. Because of that, the forces of inaction can't claim there isn't a problem, but they haven't given up either."
"Fossil fuel companies have trillions of dollars of fuel to extract and sell, and they want to delay the transition to renewable energy. So they’re deflecting from systemic change and putting focus on individual lifestyle choices, or suggesting false solutions like natural gas."
To start his day on campus, VP @ottosonnenh met the @Penn Galápagos team, co-directed by Faculty Fellow @weisbergm. He heard from team leads - inc Galápagos guide Ernesto Vaca - about their work supporting the islands’ communities to conserve their unique environment. @Vice_Ec
Next up, he met with faculty and students from @LALS_UPENN. This is an interdisciplinary program that studies Latin America and Latinx communities, and explores cultural, economic, historical, and social forces that are shaping the Americas. @Vice_Ec
It’s a full house for @ottosonnenh as he speaks about major issues facing Ecuador and the world, from sustainability to migration. Follow us for live updates 👇