Thread by @perryworldhouse

To conclude our colloquium on geopolitical forecasting, we're hosting a virtual event with @brhodes and @vmsalama, with an introduction from @Penn Interim Provost @BethWinkelst. Follow this thread for updates 🧵

.@brhodes starts with a preview of his new book, 'After the Fall,' and how he came to write it. "When I left the Obama admin, where I had spent almost 10 years, it was very disorienting. I traveled to get perspective - I’d noticed the illiberal trends building around the world."

"My new book investigates the rise of authoritarianism and nationalism around the world, and it began with a conversation with a Hungarian anti-corruption activist, who told me how his country went from a democracy to almost an autocracy in a decade."

"Viktor Orban was elected on a right-wing populist reaction to the financial crisis, he changed voting laws, he packed courts with far-right judges, and he wrapped it up in a nationalist ‘us’ vs ‘them,’ ‘true’ Hungarians."

"As he was talking to me I realized this was true of the American experience in the last decade, a playbook to entrench authoritarian politics and bring back pre-WW2 nationalism."

"America's own fingerprints were on these changes too as I looked at the 30 years after the Cold War. Unrestricted hypercapitalism created a backlash, people’s traditional identities being challenged, and the economic collapse opened a door for people like Orban and Putin."

"After 9/11, xenophobia reentered our politics. As a hegemon, we were setting a highly securitized framework in which we ignored certain laws and norms, we shouldn’t be surprised that others use it for their purposes. Xi Jinping has used the war on terror to justify Xinjiang."

"Biden is not Obama," says our moderator @vmsalama. "How has the world changed in general over the last couple of years? How is the new admin approaching things differently?"

"The whole time I was in govt I felt very aware that American hegemony had crested before Obama came into office. The Iraq war and financial crisis punctured the trust that Americans are stewards of the world order and know what they’re doing."

"There was a realignment taking place with an emerging China and revanchist Russia. We tried to do prevent new conflicts and sketch out the world order that could absorb these changes. But with Trump’s election, there’s no reflexive deference to the U.S. anymore."

"Obama could step outside of the application of American power, but it did mean it took him time to get to grips with the levers of power, whereas Biden is saturated in Washington. The principle thing that’s changed is the world rather than Biden being that different from Obama."

"20th century authoritarian movements were about ideology, but today’s are about power and money, and making others think it’s inevitable. @navalny
told me, "Putin doesn’t have to convince the Russian people that he’s not corrupt; he has to convince them that everyone else is."

What is vulnerability of authoritarianism? "It’s corruption. @navalny explained to me the power of his message is exposing how corrupt Putin is. Xi Jingping is always waging anti-corruption campaigns so there’s no focus on corruption around him. The U.S. Democrats underuse this."

"What has been your experience of social media companies vs politics and national interest at large?" asks @vmsalama. "Where can they work together productively and where is it going south?"

"Tech and social media have allowed a mass scaling up of conspiracy theories and disinformation that would not have been possible 15 years ago. You could never have made this many people believe that Barack Obama wasn’t born in America or that vaccines are bad for you."

"There’s no way out of this without regulating social media. For Facebook to claim it’s not a media company yet be a huge source of information to Americans is a huge threat to democracy."

Where is the US-China relationship going? "The economic crisis was where China no longer had to defer to the US. China feels it can set itself up as the new model. We need to get our own house in order because no foreign policy will succeed on China if we are a mess at home."

How does US move forward on global stage? "The national security enterprise was built when America was a hegemon. Allies now want to make policy with us or make their own, they don’t want to just fall in line with an American view when the US looks so erratic abroad and at home."

.@vmsalama: "One of things I kept hearing at UNGA is astonishment of allies at what happened here on Jan 6. And yet, there has been a lot of discussion about it being inevitable, the building of white nationalism in this country which was unaddressed for so long. Why was that?"

"Americans need to recognize that we’re not immune to these things, coups could happen here. We’ve been reluctant to acknowledge the radicalization going on around us. More extreme people started to get elected from 2010 onwards, tapping deep veins of racism and white supremacy."

What is percentage chance US will cease to be a liberal democracy by 2030? "Less than 50%. There are ways in which we already aren’t. You also see the attempt to entrench minority rule, manipulating American institutions to entrench political power beyond vote share."

How have authoritarian countries been affected by vaccine hesitancy? "If you’ve been hyping certain voices because they’re nationalist but try to quiet them down on vaccines, that won’t work. Some Russian activists felt COVID could be a circuit breaker for nationalism."

How should America approach the use of military force as it ends the 'forever wars' era? "You have to use military force sometimes, but it has to be an exception. Drone strikes should not be a matter of course – if we take a drone strike, we should be public about it."

"We should explain why it has happened. It shouldn’t be normalized. It’s time to dismantle and reimagine what American national security is and what it’s focused on. Terrorism should be down the list compared to climate change and democracy and new technologies."

Will Trump be the next president? "I think it’s possible, people are reluctant to see what’s happening. There are new laws to allow Rep. state legislatures to overturn the results of an election. Why are they doing that if they don’t foresee a scenario when they would act on it?"

"What’s the most useful way geopolitical forecasting can inform foreign policy?"

"I found analysis of trends to be more helpful than predicting what will happen in a country - what climate change is going to do to the world, we can project what foreign actors might do with AI. Trend-based forecasting is much more useful and constructive to a policymaker."

Is Africa the future of the global economy? "Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia stand out to me. I’d rather spend time building relationships with countries in these regions, we have to increase the quantity and quality of our engagement and move away from security focus."

What's .@brhodes's advice for young people looking to get into public service? "I had some privilege and luck along the way. I never set out to be in a certain job. I worked on issues I cared about, I tried to learn from people, I said yes to helping out with new campaigns."

"I followed my passion to work with Barack Obama on his campaign. I meet too many people who feel they have to build a resume, but you’ll be better at what you do if you admire who you work for or are passionate about the issue you work on."

Thanks for following our coverage of today's Global Order Colloquium events! You can learn more about our forthcoming events here: global.upenn.edu/perryworldhous…