This seems unsurprising and I think OBVIOUSLY the case. Manchin is an obstacle and is going to force the total number down. But Sinema seems like the one who may actually sink everything. She's never been acting in good faith thru the whole process. 
2/ Let's stipulate: Manchin is super annoying, seldom consistent and a real problem for the rest of his party. But back in December it was easy to predict he'd be playing this role. It basically makes sense in the context of his state, etc etc.
3/ You wld not at all have predicted Sinema wld play this role. She's off on this quest to brand herself the bipartisan maverick back home for a number of reasons. Ironically this seems like a total misread of the political moment. She's probably a one termer.
4/ But the point is this is her theory and she's pursuing that goal. Her actions have basically nothing to do with actual policy questions. She's using bucking her party to build a story abt herself in Arizona. Generally speaking when people say oh they're doing what their ...
5/ lobbyist pals are telling them. Usually that's BS. There's more chicken and egg than that. With Sinema, I get the sense that may be much closer to the truth. In any case, if I were up there negotiating I too would be most worried about her.
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