In their deals, Canada and Mexico agreed to VERs (voluntary export restraints).

If that is what the EU agrees to, the EU is in a legal bind with the WTO.

Here's why 🧵 1/
When the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs in 2018, it did so under the argument that Trump's national security tariffs were a "safeguard measure in disguise"... 2/

piie.com/commentary/op-…
And under the Agreement on Safeguards, because there was no surge in imports for some products, the EU argued it was due immediate "compensation."

It took that compensation in the form of limited tariff retaliation... 3/
piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
However.

The Agreement on Safeguards is one part of the WTO that PROHIBITS voluntary export restraints (see Article 11)

🤓👉🏼 wto.org/english/docs_e…

4/ Image
Other WTO agreements *encourage* VER-like outcomes.

One is the Antidumping Agreement, which suggests "price undertakings," where exporters raise their prices, and ehem, "cease" their exports

( i guess "cease" is different from "restrain")

🤓👉🏼wto.org/english/docs_e… 5/ Image
In any case, it would seem to me the EU is making a legally inconsistent argument that

1) Trump's tariffs were a safeguard (not "national security")

2) A VER they might negotiate is WTO-consistent (when the Agreement on Safeguards is one text that explicitly says it's not)

6/
of course i am not a lawyer (though i do often play one on a podcast), and so i mainly look forward to my notifications being filled by my amazing lawyer friends debating these issues and ultimately telling me why i am wrong.

ENDS/
sorry, should have also said that the PRACTICAL implications of the EU being in a "legal bind with the WTO" are

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Chad P. Bown

Chad P. Bown Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ChadBown

1 Oct
1/ 🧵

On Mon. October 4, USTR Katherine Tai will give a speech to "lay out initial steps of the Biden Administration’s approach to realign the bilateral trade relationship with China."

Here are DATA summarizing the current US-China trade relationship...
2/

Average US tariffs on imports from China remain elevated at 19.3%, more than six times higher than before the trade war began in 2018.

Average Chinese tariffs on imports from the United States also remain elevated at an average of 20.7%, up from 8%. Image
3/

Due to the trade war, US tariffs now cover around $335 billion, or 66.4%, of Chinese exports to the United States (when matched to 2017 data).

China’s retaliatory tariffs continue to cover $90 billion, or 58.3%, of US exports to China. Image
Read 12 tweets
30 Sep
<<cancels plans for next week>>
<<starts warming up the chart-making machine>>
HAS ANYONE CHECKED ON THE TIMELINE, TO MAKE SURE IT STILL WORKS???
piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
"Phase One, check check check."
"Phase One?"
piie.com/research/piie-…
Read 7 tweets
30 Sep
tfw u open up the latest AER and the second article listed was written by your amazing former undergraduate student Image
which just confirms what you had thought all along

(SHE should have been teaching that class, not you)
also the article is about beer
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
PITTSBURGH, PA: There is an item that is not on the US -EU TTC agenda which is actually really quite pressing — Trump-era US tariffs on European steel and aluminium.

by @Aime_Williams (from the Steel City)
ft.com/content/7e1a80…
have edited @Aime_Williams to resolve any confusion from her non-US audience Image
their other "football" team is the Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

riverhounds.com
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
US-CHINA TRADE UPDATE (THREAD)

On Friday, trade beat reporters for multiple media outlets reported that the Biden administration was considering a new "Section 301" unfair trade investigation of China.

This one reportedly would examine China's industrial subsidies. 1/
The Biden administration is targeting Beijing’s widespread use of industrial subsidies that give its companies an edge over foreign rivals

By @BobDavis187 & @Lingling_Wei
wsj.com/articles/biden… 2/
The Biden administration is weighing a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the U.S. economy

By @Jendeben
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 3/
Read 15 tweets
12 Sep
to de-stress from me and our daughters, my wife has indeed turned to sanctuary goat yoga
and yes, jealous. yoga WITH BABY GOATS
tbh, not sure which of the goats plays basketball. maybe this one
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(