Thread by @princetongerry

We have a report card for the Georgia 2021 Draft Staff Congressional Map. The overall grade is C.
gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

The map gets a C in Partisan Fairness - favoring the GOP, with an expected delegation of 9R/5D.
The map gets a C in Competitiveness - despite 0 competitive districts, our findings suggest D and R voters in GA are clustered - there is strong partisan sorting in the state.

Of the districts, there are two which come close to competitive, the 6th & 2nd. The 6th contains Atlanta suburbs, including sections of Fulton and Forsyth Counties. The 2nd, a large southwest district, contains Columbus and Albany.

The prior Congressional map had 4 Black opportunity districts. The current proposal keeps that number, but regresses in BVAP percentages. In the prior map, all 4 districts had 50+% BVAP. In this map, only 3 districts exceed 50% BVAP.

The new map features 5 districts with MVAP 50+%, all D. This suggests that, at least in GA, there are strong links between communities of color and D vote share. District 12 in East GA (including Augusta) is solid R (55.69% R voteshare) but with 45% MVAP.

This suggests there is some pool of minority voters who are being denied the opportunity to elect. In 5 districts, R voteshare is between 55-60%. These are solid R, but not overpacked. This indicates some amount of gerrymandering.

In the next decade, such districts could become dummymanders.
It appears that tech has been used to pack/crack voters. Packing refers to concentrating the opposing party's voting power in one district. Cracking refers to diluting the opposing party's power across many districts.

Software exists that allows line-drawers to create voteshare safe zones. Here's how: a safe threshold is established for incumbent seats, and as many possible districts that can be drawn according to the threshold are created.

The threshold strategy doesn't consider geographic splits, communities, or other important criteria. Instead, vote share is the primary focus. Used aggressively, such tactics can maximize the number of safe seats for a party.

This strategy could be used to protect partisan odds through the next 5 election cycles.

By focusing on vote share and partisan interests, the state may say that race is not a focus in drawing maps; however, in states when race and party are more interrelated, or at least correlated, the strategy is likely to harm representation by race.