System or Algo based trading started gaining prominence in US in 80s, picked up in 90s, and exploded from 2000 onwards. Over 80% volumes in these markets are driven by Algo. In April 2008, SEBI releases a policy allowing DMA (Direct Market Access) and opens the floodgates here
DMA simply means that a trade can now be originated by a computer and order execution can happen automatically. in an automated fashion via computers, without manual (human) intervention.
The truest technology revolution in India is the invention of ATM. A person with more
money has to wait in queue before a person who is standing ahead.
The second revolution, in my opinion is Algorithmic Trading. Why? Capital markets have been known to function with inefficiencies in early 90s (before advent of National Stock Exchange), where brokers front-ran
stocks i.e. once brokers got orders with strong information, they may gain from the price movement in his own account. Traders were paying 101 for a 100 rupee stock (1% higher). With advent of NSE price information became simultaneous and real-time and volumes shifted there.
Before 2008, seeds of automated trading had begun with 1-click or touch DMA. The order is generated by a machine and pops-up on the trading/dealing terminal, and will go to exchange after a human confirms it. Creative folks figured ways to automate the click also, similar to
windows automation. SEBI thought it makes sense to legalise and regularise this, and also match up with fast growing global markets who were leaping ahead with volumes due to Algo trading. And this led to the DMA policy coming out in 2008. How does all matter to us as
individuals accessing Capital markets. Well, the policy was launched by SEBI for Institutional players (like brokers, hedge funds, proprietary desks). SEBI started with them and eventually allowed Corporates to do DMA. Exchange is mainly concerned with is that the Algo
trading system does not cause unstability in the system due to excessive high speed orders.
Around 2017, the RESTful API was launched and gained prominence. This is a light-weight API, and an API is nothing but a bridge that connects two software platforms together. If you
think of Worli and Bandra (in Mumbai), the Worli-Bandra sealink is an API.
Now lot of individuals are able to generate their API keys and login for automated trading, and this is growing in prominence. The ecosystem consists of Finance Ministry, SEBI, Exchanges, Broker Members
, Individual / Corporate Managers and Fintech companies providing Algo strategies and Individuals who consume these. Individuals are also building their own algorithms and automating them via tools.
Why is Algo Trading is a revolution for retail? Think about this.
While placing orders manually, it may take upto 2-5 seconds for an average dealer/trader to punch orders, whereas on average an individual might need 20-30 seconds to place an order. The High speed Automated trading systems (which institutions run) can trade in milli and micro
seconds. By the time the trades execute for retail, the prices may move by a lot.
Most individuals do not place their stop loss orders in the system, they keep in their heads (i.e. in real terms, there is no stop-loss). Without a stop-loss, an individual is at the mercy of
the market. Behavioural Finance has proved with numerous experiments, conducted by guys like Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, authors of Thinking, Fast and Slow, that the brain has System 1 (logical) and System 2 (emotional). The emotional brain intervenes with the logical
brain via hope, greed and fear!!
In an Algo Trading System, these challenges are overcome. For the first times in their lives, human beings have the chance to beat their biases. The emotional brain (System 2) is not bad, because without it's trigger, the System 1 is useless
and defunct. The desire to make money (an emotion) comes from System 2, and then System 1 gets into action. However, the emotions that go against this urge, range from Greed, Fear and Hope intervene with the overall process and this causes most of us to lose money when we trade
discretionarily (i.e. without using an Algo System).
All players and stake-holders in the Algo Trading ecosystem are working towards arriving at a semblance and bringing more clarity for algorithms at a retail level. Various regulations on execution and fee collection need more
clarity, which perhaps is best to separately classify for Fintech companies, and the overlaps with existing policy has to be transcended by SEBI.
What is needed is clarity for Retail in Algo, either by a new policy or changes in existing policies where overlaps exist. Going
back to one-touch will be like moving from a Ferrari back to a Ford. We live in the world of Ferrari's, and with Algo Trading it creates a level playing field for retail and traders can have the aspiration own a Ferrari, just like Institutional players would.
Let's not deny
every trader the opportunity for that moment. An ecosystem is only as good as it's weakest member and it's in interest of each member to grow ecosystem together, at the risk of Mutual Fund ecosystem dominating Algo Ecosystem, whereas both can co-exist together and help each other
Trading and Investing is simple. In investing, buy “quality” stocks, hold them till ever. Even if you bought them at the peaks of market like 2007, 2017, you may have to wait 3-5 years before seeing you get back a return on your investment.
In trading,
where typically people leverage, you want to cut the losing trade and ride the winning trade.
Well, simply put these things look great in practice and sounds intellectually stimulating. Aah, once one reads this and understands this, one is ready to be the next millionaire on
dalal-street.
However, as one engages in the journey to “riches”, one realizes that actual riches v/s the idea of getting rich has one big chasm to cross- the valley called “Drawdown”.
What is Drawdown? Simply put, if you invested 100 Rupees in a stock, and unluckily it turned
Trend-Following combined with Non-Directional Options trading is perhaps the best of discoveries we have found over the last few years in systematic trading. Notice how, when Trend Following loses, Options makes money. It's probably a bit early in the day, but my sixth
sense tells me this is going to give us the big boost we have been looking for. There have always been some of the Arguments against Trend-Following and critics of Trend Following are rather more judge-mental and who live less in the present moment.
a) Recovery Period: The longer recovery periods from draw-down are reduced because as they say- approximately 70% of the time markets are side-ways. I am not interested in any debate here whether this is 60% or 80% or 73.7%. Since Debating has never earned me any brownie points
Position Sizing and Trading Performance
What is the value of the position you are carrying? When we say value, it has nothing to do with margin, risk, where your stop loss is, etc. When we are talking about the world of cash equities, this is quite clear. The importance
arises when we are trading futures and options, which is more the case. Let us see this in context of Cash equities, Futures and Options.
Let us say we are buying 1000 shares of XYZ Ltd. For Rs. 500/- a share. The exposure totals to Rs.500 (The price)
X 1000 (The quantity bought). That totals to Rs.5,00,000/-. This is the position size, or in other words “exposure” to the market. The maximum a share can go to is 0. So this is also the “Risk” i.e. maximum that one can lose in this position. To take delivery of this
Many of us feel system trading is removing the emotions from Trading. Nothing could be further from the truth. A Robot may not have emotions. This again is debatable. How does system trading help, if at all, then, in trading?
Our emotions are layered, just like the various peels of an onion. Many are at the surface, and maybe visible to ourselves and to others. A deeper layer of emotions though, is invisible. It is layered so deep and entrenched so much within us, that it may not be accessible to
our conscious. When we create a rule-based mechanical trading strategy, what we are doing in a way is channelling all our emotions together into an algorithm or set of rules, which we feel is suitable to us and our temperament. How can then, a system which is good for me,
Multi-Time Frame Analysis
Think of Price Action in terms of waves. There are some waves which are large, and some are small. If a large wave is flowing towards the shore, and a small wave is going away from the shore, what will happen to the small wave when it meets the large
wave? Obviously, it will start flowing back towards the shore, in line with the large wave. There is no small wave capable to turning the course of the large wave, atleast in the now.
Now think of Candles in terms of waves. If the Weekly Candle (large wave) is Up, and Daily
Candle (medium wave) is Down, and Hourly Candle (smaller wave) is Down, will the Price go down. It may, and be enough to keep prices down and turn the Weekly Candle also down. The odds of this happening though are less. Therefore in Multi-Time Frame analysis one should trade