Rob Lee Profile picture
1 Oct, 10 tweets, 4 min read
The FSB has published a list of defense topics that can get Russians labeled as a foreign agent if they collect it including:
-methods of combat training
-moral and psychological climate in the army
-location of units
-forecasts of the strategic situation
publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/…
Other topics include: information on R&D results for military equipment and information on the use of quantum technologies and artificial intelligence in the creation of new weapons and special equipment. 2/
lenta.ru/news/2021/09/3…
kommersant.ru/doc/5009357
The FSB says this list contains topics that aren't state secrets but could be used against Russia's security if transferred abroad. Anyone who purposefully collects such info could be labeled a foreign agent. Who knows how it will be applied but it will have a chilling effect. 3/
Since 2014, the Russian government has used Western sanctions as an excuse for increasing classifications over the military and defense industry while reducing transparency but this takes it a step even further. 4/
Does this mean independent Russian social media accounts will have to stop posting about defense topics? Will Russian defense experts be allowed to speak to Western media? If not, Western analysis of Russian defense issues will suffer, which won't make anyone safer. 5/
Notably, Russia's top defense journalist, Ivan Safronov, was arrested by the FSB last summer and has been held in prison for more than a year on clearly fabricated treason charges. He was working for Roscosmos after being forced out of journalism. 6/
Basically all of these steps are making it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for independent Russian defense experts who don't work in the MoD, MID, or OPK. Russian defense policy will suffer as a result (as well as corruption). 7/
Another issue is how this could become an FSB/MoD turf war. The Russia MoD clearly is fine with outside defense experts (it has a public council of civilian experts who regularly meet with Shoigu), but the FSB could label people close to the MoD as foreign agents now. 8/
I wonder what this means for Track II diplomacy as well. Aside from the Russian military, most of the list concerns Roscosmos, which has been plagued with corruption and other issues. 9/

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More from @RALee85

27 Sep
There's a shocking document on Russian social media that alleges the commander and deputy CO of the 78th Separate Spetsnaz Company were extorting their soldiers for money and beat any who refused. It alleges the CO raped a soldier with a broom handle while his deputy filmed it.
It isn't verified though, and I couldn't find information about the unit. The Russian Ground Forces have been standing up separate spetsnaz companies in every combined arms army, so it could be a newly established unit. 2/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/wall-201540676…
The document alleges three separate incidents that occurred in August and November 2020 and January 2021 against four different soldiers by Major Panov and Captain Yerushevich. A criminal case allegedly has begun for abuse of office and violent acts of a sexual nature. 3/
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27 Sep
There's a new video released for tankman's day in Russia with footage of a T-14 Armata tank and T-72B3 with the Arena-M active protection system and Nakidka "cape" with heat-insulating and radio-absorbing material to counter ATGMs and thermal optics.
The T-15 Armata IFV without its turret. 2/
T-72B3 tank with an Arena APS and Nakidka radar-absorbent material that counters thermal optics and radar. 3/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
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20 Sep
There was a shooting at Perm University, reportedly by an 18-year-old with what appears to be a shotgun. The initial reports indicate that as many as five people may have been killed and 11 wounded. The shooter has been detained.
t.me/Lshot/30759
Another video of the shooter at Perm University. 2/
t.me/milinfolive/71…
Reportedly photo of the shooter after he was detained. 3/
t.me/zvezdanews/559… Image
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
Some initial conclusions from the Zapad 2021 exercise. The most notable difference between Zapad 2021 and Zapad 2017 is that Russia conducted two Yars ICBM launches during Zapad 2017, one at the beginning and end. We didn't publicly see any nuclear weapons used during Zapad 2021.
Does that tell us something about how conflict termination could occur in a conflict with NATO? Is Russia more confident in its conventional deterrence vis-a-vis NATO? There wasn't any escalate to deescalate either. Or would this be reading too much into the exercise? 2/
The Russian MoD said that a Tu-95MS bomber took part in the exercise, but as part of the OPFOR and reportedly focused on testing Russian air defenses. There didn't appear to be any strategic bombers involved in delivering simulated nuclear strikes. 3/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
Read 19 tweets
16 Sep
Pretty crazy story out of the town of Liski near Voronezh today. A man in tactical gear attached an explosive device to the door of a police station and detonated it. He appears to still be on the loose.
t.me/zvezdanews/557…
CCTV footage of the attacker. 2/
t.me/bazabazon/8132
Video from inside the police department. 3/
t.me/bazabazon/8138
Read 7 tweets
16 Sep
Photos from a SOF shooting tournament in Tulsa with former SSO commander Alexey Dyumin and current SSO specialists. Interestingly, this is the first time I’ve seen SSO specialists wearing gray uniforms and berets. Will they be known as the Gray Berets now?
t.me/ok_spn/14438
The cap badge is of the SSO's emblem. It also appears Dyumin is playing around with one of the specialist's berets. 2/
myslo.ru/news/tula/2021…
Obviously, I meant Tula, not Tulsa. Also in attendance was Alexander Matovnikov, another former SSO commander and Dyumin's deputy; Sergei Dyachenko, Deputy of FSO and a former Alfa officer; and Andrei Merzlikin, who received the Hero of Russia award in Tajikistan in 1993. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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