Thread by @althecat

Cyclone Gulab (Rose) is back in the model, and is now forecast to make landfall in Oman as a Severe Cyclonic Storm on Sunday.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1443558384779804672?s=20

Here's a view Gulab 19 hours ago. Current scenarios in both leading cyclonic models the ECMWF (European) and GFS (US) maintain the view that the cyclone will not intensify or bring significant rain across the Arabian Peninsula.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1443556928475512841?s=20

Here are the latest ECMWF and GFS rainfall solutions. The GFS has a more northerly path taking the cyclone into the #UAE, while the ECMWF has returned to a two cyclone scenario.

There remains a lot of uncertainty.

Here's a seven day PWAT (atmospheric moisture/energy) forecast from the GFS Model. It's a bit surprising more rain is not forecast for the UAE and Saudi from this scenario.

Here's the latest 10 day Access G (Australian model) solution which has the storm staying over the gulf and impating the #UAE and #Qatar significantly more.

The CMC (Canadian) model has proven fairly good at forecasting precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula over the past year. Here is its current best guess.

And finally the @ECMWF (Euro) model solution, the other well proven global cyclonic model. That said, when it comes to the Middle East it has done a very poor job of forecasting rainfall this year.

Here are the Access G (Aus) and CMC (Canada) rainfall solutions. To me the CMC looks the most realistic to me by far.

But clearly the Middle East needs to prepare for the unexpected.

Finally. Here's a 12 hour animation of Severe Cyclonic Storm Gulab from this morning. The storm is clearly getting well organised rapidly. The more organised a storm become, the faster it can strengthen.

/ENDS

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