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1 Oct, 8 tweets, 2 min read
Extreme right-wing candidate Zemmour a point behind Le Pen in the latest Ipsos poll (and a point away from the second round)
In some scenarios he's 2 points behind but geez this situation unfolded quickly
This was also conducted after Zemmour's debate that just took place with Melenchon
Two weeks ago
That's a different poll but he's drawn it close in Harris too
The one run-off poll I've seen, however, is far less kind to Zemmour at the moment
Here's the kicker. Macron wallops all of these people because he's much stronger in terms of his favorables. So approval is one thing to look out for (though even then it's a bit complicated). But the next milestone for Zemmour right now would be polling first in the first round
Most French reject Zemmour but his numbers are shifting. I also don't think he's officially announced his presidential campaign yet. His only real path to victory with such a divisive candidacy is to shock the electorate and rack up momentum, but the vote is all the way in April

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More from @PopulismUpdates

Populism Updates Profile picture
3 Oct
Zelensky is named in the Pandora Papers for offshore accounts set up *before* the election. You have to feel bad for Ukrainians, who trusted him enough to give him 73% of the vote... after he spent the campaign railing against the exact same thing theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/…
The question is where do Ukrainians even go after being betrayed by the politicians who engaged in corruption and the comedian who hammered politicians for engaging in corruption
It's not like Zelensky's government has been smooth sailing until this point, and he's still polling first. Not sure to what degree this news will take hold either. Polls and his approval rating remain important indicators here
Read 6 tweets
Populism Updates Profile picture
3 Oct
Today's Activa poll for the Chilean presidential election shows pro-Pinochet candidate José Antonio Kast in second place, which would put him in the run-off Image
However at the moment, the same poll shows left-wing candidate Boric is expected to crush Kast in a second round
The upswing in Kast's support does seem to be noteworthy
Read 6 tweets
Populism Updates Profile picture
2 Oct
I like how the standard polisci argument for why the American electoral system is unfair under FPTP but will never change is just that legislators will never vote against their own interests. As if that isn't terrible
To some degree it's true but it's a mistake to think that's something set in iron, and effective mass movements could have a lot of influence here
Hard mode: A third party (I know Yang wants this but anyone really famous could run as a "reformer" and sweep Congress in 2/3 cycles if they're popular enough and truly cut across demographics. That's a *huge* lift)

Easy mode: Run someone in the major parties committed to reform
Read 10 tweets
Populism Updates Profile picture
2 Oct
South Africa's former finance minister wants discussion of a referendum on autonomy or independence for the Cape region to be halted, saying "We are one united country" (via @Ellibec) citizen.co.za/news/south-afr…
A recent poll showed that 48% of voters in the province of Western Cape said yes to the idea of becoming independent Image
Even the ANC has had to comment on this apparently. This recent press release (yesterday) from the Cape Independence Advocacy Group says the ANC might be open to a referendum but they'd want all of South Africa to vote on the issue capeindependence.org/post/watershed…
Read 5 tweets
Populism Updates Profile picture
2 Oct
People always clown on anyone who keeps running after failing to get elected but there's pretty much no reason for her not to try again
Also running and losing can arguably help your next campaign by shoring you up in terms of name recognition. Which is why we know who Zephyr Teachout is, and why she's able to mount these kinds of high profile campaigns, because she challenged Cuomo despite incredibly long odds
This is pretty much what it comes down to in any situation, no matter how annoying "oh, they're trying AGAIN" might seem
Read 4 tweets
Populism Updates Profile picture
2 Oct
Rome is about to hold its mayoral election. On the ballot is Sergio Iacomoni AKA Nero, running with his "Nero List" ("Lista Nerone").

Iacomoni is a well-known Roman Empire reenactor who has traveled the world with his historical society and says he wants to "resurrect Rome" ImageImage
Hardcore ImageImageImage
The platform for the Nero List (Full name: "Roman Historical Movement - Nero List") involves heavy subsidizing of traditional Roman festivals and music, as well as a promise to "sponsor bagpipers in each municipality" movimentostoricoromano.it/programma Image
Read 6 tweets

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