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Biotech2k

1 Oct, 13 tweets, 2 min read

Considering a radical bubbl-ectomy of my portfolio do to the massive bubbles in CRISPR and Protein Degraders. I am looking at doing this into the next big pop for the $XBI. Some of these valuation make me feel stupid just looking at them.

1/ My initial plan was to buy back into CRISPR names as the bubble imploded, but too much money chasing that bubble. I think I would better be served making money elsewhere. There is only money to be lost there.

2/ The protein degraders are getting dangerous at these values for all but poor $GLUE. I might cut them all loose on the next big pop in the $XBI.

3/ Here was my initial plan then my new plan I am considering until the obvious bubble pop in this sector. It has become a really dangerous sector.

4/ Initial Plan:

Pathways 20%
Synthetic Lethality 15%
Protein Degraders 15%
CRISPR 15%
Cell Therapies 15%
Delivery 15%
Cash 5%

5/ New Plan:
Pathways 25%
Synthetic Lethality 25%
Cell Therapies 25%
Cash 25%

6/ There are some really cheap spaces in these 3 areas. I could make money while waiting for the bubbles to pop. Then I would have plenty of cash to shift back to the original plan once they do pop.

7/ Under Pathways:

1. $BPMC
2. $TPTX
3. $RVMD
4. $ERAS
5. $RLAY

8/ Under SL:

1. $MRTX
2. $SDGR
3. $RPTX
I could look at adding 2 names like $KNTE or $IDYA for more exposure to a cheaper theme.

9/ Cell Therapies:

1. $FATE
2. $SANA
3. $IPSC
4. $CRBU
5. $TIL
6. $CABA

10/ That would leave me with 16 names which is a very nice number to circle the wagons around when the market collapses as the Fed pops the bubble with higher rates.

11/ I already deleted all the CRISPR names from my watch list. I will assume one of my friends will tell me when that bubble collapses. Its got about 50% to go before it gets to any level of reality.

12/ I am highly considering shifting like this as I just feel dumb when I look as some of the valuations people are paying in this market. Example is $BEAM was just $1.27 billion market cap before the pandemic bubble started.

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More from @Biotech2k1

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

2 Oct

Profiling $RPTX:

My last pathway company to profile for today. They are unique as they are focused on the DNA damage repair pathways. This is a new frontier of discovery. There are not a lot of companies in this space yet.

1/ They are my first and only pure Synthetic Lethality play. Their first drug is around the ATM/ATR pathway that regulates double stranded breaks. This concept looks for pathways that cancer depends on to drive growth. It targets them to kill the cancer cells.

2/ The ATM/ATR pathway has been attempted before. It has concerns with toxicity. There is a level of concern and caution about trying new things in this same area that failed before.

Read 6 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

2 Oct

Profiling $SDGR:

It took me a long time to warm up to $SDGR. For a long time, I just dismissed it as a tech company. I could care less about a tech company. Then I found out they were developing their own pipeline.

1/ Then again, I dismissed them as a tech company pretending to be a biotech. What would a tech company know about developing drugs? I listened to a few of their presentations from their science guru. That is when I thought they had potential.

2/ They have a lot of partnerships for companies using their software developing drugs. I am not going to cover any of those as they all have different terms and levels of profit sharing. They do offer potential should they work out.

Read 13 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

2 Oct

Profiling $RLAY:

I got into this company about 6 months ago. They are an early stage company with no data yet. They have a big risk/reward profile with using AI to attempt to take on some of the most toxic targets in pathways.

1/ I spoke before about how the SPH2 and PI3K kinases are at the top of the MAPK and mTOR pathways. Being at the top of the pathway gives them strong suppression effects, but a lot of toxicity. $RLAY is taking on these targets using its AI platform to develop inhibitors.

2/ Their fist program is around SHP2 which they already partnered out. This helps mitigate any failure if the technology doesn't help improve this target more then other companies. We have no data yet on this program. This has been turned over to the partner so data is waiting.

Read 11 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

2 Oct

Profiling $ERAS:

This is a new IPO, but I jumped on it because of its management. This management was from the old Ignyta which was very successful for me in the past. I go into Ignyta early and held it until the day it was bought out. I know this is a winning management team.

1/ They remind me very much like $RVMD with a big focus on the MAPK pathway. They have no data yet, but they did dose their first patient. I would expect some early data in the Spring of next year.

2/ Their first targets are all about MAPK and using combinations of target to lock down this pathway in cancer. Many drugs will suppress the pathway, but it rebounds over time.

Read 10 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

2 Oct

Profiling $RVMD:

I got into this company early this year. I love the pathways they are targeting, but they have little data or success yet to show they have great science yet.

1/ Their management is still new to me as they haven't had much data yet. Their first program was for SHP2 which had lack luster data. At least they were wise enough to partner that away for some cash. They are highly focused on the internal cell growth pathways.

2/ These are the MAPK and mTOR pathways. These are some of the hottest pathways in all oncology. The problem is the closer to the receptor you go for the pathways, the broader the suppression and the higher the toxicity.

Read 8 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

2 Oct

Profiling $MRTX:

I got interested in $MRTX about 3 years ago while I was an Array Bio investor. They licensed some of the KRAS technology from Array. That got me interested.

1/ $MRTX just replaced their CEO. Chuck moved up to Chairman and they hired David Meek to groom into the new CEO role. He has a history with commercial experience. That is good for taking the company to the next level with approval and sales.

2/ Their original drug is Sitravatinib which hits multiple kinases. This is designed to alter the tumor microenvironment to shift things back toward cellular killing. It had some decent data for patients who developed resistance to PD-1 inhibitors.

Read 16 tweets

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