This fascinating article from @dylanlscott clearly draws out how those who sought to belittle the risk early in the pandemic have wound up embracing ineffectual and dangerous alternatives to vaccines, even as the virus keeps killing vox.com/coronavirus-co…
Key line: "people have still proven quite capable of shaping and reshaping a narrative that doesn’t require them to admit they might have been wrong." And sadly this includes a small but vocal minority of scientists you'd hope would know better
The protection of vaccination should be extended to all those who want it, and that *includes* giving people accurate information, from a trusted and trustworthy source, that helps them make the right choice
(note that this is not saying there is only one 'right' choice, but that refusing a vaccine because you think it will make you magnetic is certainly not the right choice)
If you happen to be a trusted member of an undervaccinated community, I hope you can speak to your friends and neighbors and help those who are still in the vulnerable column to join the protected one. If they won't listen to me, they might listen to you
Meanwhile, a tiny group of scientists who get attention out of all proportion to their numbers continue to make noise. Here's just one example of a questionable paper (in terms of science and publishing ethics) pointed out by the excellent @jsm2334
And if you are one of those in a position of authority and power who prey upon the fears of anxious people, I honestly cannot understand your motivation but I implore you to stop. Here's why...
Delta is highly transmissible and really good at finding pockets of unvaccinated people. The more such pockets there are, the more people will die unnecessarily. You can't hope Delta will somehow miss you, that's not how this works
Everyone sowing doubt about the crucial point that vaccines save lives - no matter who they are or how impressive they superficially appear - is making things worse and delaying the day when we will look back on this and wonder how we got through it (it will be no thanks to them)
Finally I urge folks to read this piece from @EBHarrington on "cooling the mark out" which came out a few months ago. It remains urgent now theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

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More from @BillHanage

15 Sep
When I see statements like this, especially now, I wonder what people mean by "the overwhelming of [healthcare]"

We shouldn't talk about healthcare being overwhelmed, we should talk about it being compromised or otherwise damaged, in a way that could have been avoided 1/?
Healthcare is compromised when elective surgeries are canceled, when screening is canceled. It is compromised when we run low on ICU nurses because they are needed in too many places or because they are sick with a virus 2/?
It is compromised when campaigns against scourges like malaria, TB or polio are damaged because of an uncontrolled pandemic 3/?
Read 5 tweets
6 Sep
Some more thoughts prompted by this article - the notion of an 'end' to the pandemic is itself faulty in my opinion. But that emphatically does *not* mean interventions forever. It means that the transition to endemic disease can and should be managed 1/?
The reason 'end' is dangerous is that it suggests a date when everything changes overnight and we return to 'normal'. That takes no account of variants, waning immunity or the fact that most of the world is struggling to access vaccines, among many other things 2/?
However in vaccinated places it is true things are *much* better than they easily could be, but that doesn't mean the pandemic is 'over'. This is Oregon and Idaho *now*. 3/? nytimes.com/2021/09/06/us/…
Read 12 tweets
3 Sep
I follow twitter less than you might think, but I have noticed a trend for people calling themselves "covid centrists". I find this difficult because it suggests a spectrum between extremes. I'm not a covid anythingist, I am just a scientist
This means I think about claims based on the evidence for them as I understand it. If you ask me what I think will happen if we take a particular action, I can tell you that.
That means I also need to admit when things don't go as I expected. For eg, while I expected (and publicly predicted) a dent in the rate of increase in the UK as the schools closed, before transmission resumed. But I was surprised by the scale of the drop. Now about that...
Read 8 tweets
3 Sep
Trying to write a couple talks for next week based on this new preprint from us on how we expect vaccines to perform against variants with enhanced transmissibility, some immune evasion, or both. A🧵may follow as I sort my thoughts out
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 1/?
One important thing - it is always important to compare impacts of vaccination against the alternative, so we've estimated infections averted for a simple model, and varied stuff like time and pace of vaccine introduction and the point at which variants emerge 2/?
I called it a simple model, but it has quite a lot of compartments. The arrows are the possible ways people move from S (susceptible) through being I (infected) or V (vaxxed). Resistant (thanks to immunity from infection R) and various breakthroughs 3/?
Read 18 tweets
17 Aug
Nate seems to be doubling down on claiming my thread said something that it didn’t. I can accept a lot of misunderstanding but this is something more. This looks like deliberately mischaracterizing what I said for clicks. I am really disappointed 1/x
The point is that places with more immunity should have to work less hard to avoid/control delta surges. Australia has little immunity, due to a very successful early pandemic management approach and a much less successful vaccination program 2/x
In contrast FL and TX have a lot of immunity, due to both a lot of infections and a lot more vaccination. Yet hospitalizations are rocketing there because there is no will to enact *mild* interventions to prevent transmission of delta 3/x
Read 8 tweets
16 Aug
Delta is really transmissible, which is much worse than immune escape. On the other hand, there’s reasons for optimism from the likes of Australia and Vietnam that we can take action other than vaccination to stand on its way. Let me explain… 2/x
Here’s FL and TX, both with substantial prior infection and non trivial vaccination. Cases as high as they’ve ever been (or higher) and they’ve been darned high already and a lot of people have died already. This is down to Delta, and minimal local interventions to combat it 3/x
In contrast Australia. That steep climb reflects the threat of delta, but look at the absolute numbers and recall Australia has *never* had a significant outbreak, so this is small relative to FL and TX and with very little population immunity. It could easily be worse 4/x
Read 6 tweets

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