Thread by @Biotech2k1

Profiling $BPMC.

I have been in this company for over 3 years now. Its been a fantastic company. They have top quality management.

1/ They have 4 commercial indications already. These 4 are relatively small, but they validate the pipeline and the ability of management to develop and commercialize drugs. This is one of the most trusted managements I have found since my early days with Celgene.

2/ Their fist indications are Ayvakit for D842V mutations of PDGFRa in GIST. This is a very small indication accounting for about 5% of GIST. I am sure with its data, it gets used off label for other GIST patients. I think this wont account for more than $50 million sales.

3/ Ayavakit has a second indication around Systemic Mastocytois. The advanced indication is approved which is about 2,000 patients. The trial for indolent is ongoing and could add up to 30,000 patient population. That is a huge market opportunity if that data holds up.

4/ They have Gavreto in RET driven cancers for Thyroid and NSCLC. They partnered this program out due to the heavy competition. I think that was wise. They get royalties on sales. I don't think it earns more than $250 million royalties.

5/ So far, We can justify about $400 million in peak sales for the 4 commercial indications. That is not big but it will fund the development of the rest of the pipeline.

6/ They have a new pure KIT inhibitor in phase 2 development that was super clean on safety for all Mast Cell disorders. We know 95% of SM is driven by KIT D816V mutations. That could be huge opportunity across all SM and other mast cell indications.

7/ This could expand the small TAM for Ayvakit in SM from around $750 million to over $2 billion. That is an additional $1.35 billion in sales if BLU-263 has data as good as Ayvakit with that super clean safety.

8/ They have their new EFGR 2nd and 3rd gen drugs. The main therapy now is Osimertinib which is a 2 gen drug for T790M. It leads to a C797S mutation which brings in the need for more options. BLU-701 and BLU-945 are in development to target both the T790M and C797S mutations.

9/ Even though Osimertinib has been a wonderful drug for EFGR, many patient eventually develop resistance to it. I know Osimertinib has annual sales of over $3 billion per year. I think the EFGR program for $BPMC could be worth $1.5 billion up to maybe $2 billion.

10/ That is another great opportunity. Then they have their new CDK2 program for Cyclin E dependent cancers. This is another very interesting story. There is a lot of potential for CCNE1 driven cancers.

11/ Many investors want to think that the best days are behind a company when it finally gets to commercial, but $BPMC is just getting started. They have multiple early and mid stage programs that have very large potential.

12/ Obviously, any program can fail so there is always risk. I have my valuation for them set at about $107 which makes this one of the cheaper companies in a very frothy biotech market. There is not a lot of value left out there.

13/ I see a very cheap company, with great potential and a management that has proven it has the right stuff to get these programs across the finish line. Its my top pick for companies that target growth receptors.

14/ There are 4 places in the pathways that can be targeted with the receptor of growth signals, the growth transduction pathway, the cell cycle pathways and the DNA repair pathways. $BPMC falls into the growth receptor pathways with all but its CDK2 program.

15/ I got to admit. There is a lot of competition for these growth receptor targets. They are the oldest and most developed part of the pathways, but constant mutations and resistance by cancer requires the need for newer drugs.