Thread by @Biotech2k1

Profiling $TPTX:

I have been in this company just over a year now. I am pretty sure the management is strong, but it hasn't had the chance to navigate the entire process yet. They still need to show they can get a drug approved and execute on selling it.

1/ This company is working on the growth receptors pathways. They are a 2nd generation of kinase company. They are developing much smaller inhibitors that can get in there and still inhibit the kinase even with mutation. That is their big tech development.

2/ Their drugs are designed to get around and overcome resistance. Will they develop resistances of their own? My money would be on yes as cancer always mutates to find a way around most drugs.

3/ Repotrectinib is a multi kinase inhibitor that hits ROS1 and NTRK mainly with some benefit from SRC and FAK. Their ROS1 indication has shown an impressive 91% ORR in niave patients. We should see an update on this program at AACR next weekend.

4/ Repotrectinib also targets NTRK which hasn't had a lot of data read out yet. Its been promising so far. They are planning and updated readout next weekend at AACR for this program.

5/ I put ROS1 at about $500 million potential and NTRK at $250 million as its far more competitive. This drug could sell well over $1 billon combined. It is still in phase 2, but they can file for early approval sometime around middle of next year.

6/ That puts them around 2 years from being a commercial company. Their early stage programs are around MET, RET and ALK. These are all highly developed spaces.

7/ They had some early data last year in TPX-0022 in MET. The early data was encouraging, but it was too few patients to really know what this drug could do. We will see another bigger data read out at AACR for this program.

8/ This could compete with other MET drugs that do well over $1 billion sales each. A lot will depend on that data. The next program they have is around RET. With 2 already very strong RET inhibitors on the market, I don't have very high numbers for this program.

9/ TPX-0046 will be important for patients who begin to develop resistance to other first generation RET inhibitors like Gavreto. We will need to see a lot more data to see how this really fits into the landscape of RET.

10/ Their last program is TPX-0131 for ALK. This is a second generation ALK inhibitor. There are already successful ALK inhibitors on the market, but they develop resistance over time. That could open up an opportunity for a new ALK inhibitor like TPX-0131.

11/ There is really so much potential for $TPTX to go back and invent 2nd generation smaller inhibitors to any kinase that has worked well, but developed a resistance. So much depends on how these 2nd generation drugs work compared to the others in this space.

12/ The worst case scenario is they do well for patient that develop resistance, but never strong enough to replace the first generation inhibitors. This would put the sales at maybe $1 to $2 billion max for these 2nd generation drugs.

13/ If their data in first line can be as strong or better than the first generation drugs, they can carve out more market share. That scenario could make each of these drugs a blockbuster of its own.

14/ Based on 1 late stage drug and multiple early stage drugs, I think $TPTX is fairly valued around $75. That makes it cheap based on that valuation. It has a lot to prove yet with the science, but its cheap enough to make the risk worth the reward.