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Biotech2k

3 Oct, 9 tweets, 2 min read

Profiling $ARVN:

I just started investing in $ARVN a few months ago. I was waiting for more of the data to validate the whole protein degrader thesis before I got in. Too much science fails to not wait for some data.

1/ Their lead program is for Estrogen Receptor + cancer. There is a huge amount of competition in this space. 75% of all breast caner is ER+ so its a big indication. They needed to do a partnership to drive market share for this drug.

2/ Their second drug is for Androgen Receptor + CRPC. This is another very competitive space. They will probably need a partner here or they will do poorly. Their drug is not as impressive as the ER indication. Probably why they have 2 follow on AR drugs in development.

3/ These first 2 programs are their main focus as it should be. They are the most unimpressive programs of any protein degrader companies. They do have a set of CNS programs that are very exciting around Tau, Alpha Synuclein, and Huntington's.

4/ These programs will probably be on the back burner until the others are closer to commercial. They also have an early KRAS program that is really exciting, but its also on the back burner as they develop their lead drugs.

5/ Meanwhile all the other KRAS companies get further and further ahead. There is a lot to like about their pipeline. I just feel like there is so much to be excited about if we could just get past the junk that is clogging up the pipeline right now.

6/ I still own them because they do have the most validated data. Its not game changing data. Its decent data. The safety is really good. I hope they will surprise me with all the potential they have.

7/ The valuation of the protein degrader space is extremely expensive. There are massive expectations in this space that might not work out. This company is probably worth $3 to $4 billion max for what they currently have. They are trading at over $4 billion right now.

8/ Its come in a lot on price so its expensive, but not crazy anymore. My fair value price is around $55 to $60 based on their level of validation.

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More from @Biotech2k1

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

5 Oct

My game plan updated:

I am still into the buy the dips and sell every rip. I think the collapse in the bubbles in the biotech space are just getting started.

Pathways:

$BPMC 3.36% core position
$TPTX 3.36% core position
$RVMD 2.02% expendable into any big rally
$ERAS 1.34% expendable into any big rally
$RLAY 2.02% expendable into any big rally

Synthetic Lethality:

$MRTX 3.36% core position
$SDGR 2.02% working to pay off core position
$RPTX 2.69% working to pay off core position

Read 7 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

4 Oct

Profiling $CABA:

I have been in this company for about 8 months now. I think the management is good, but way too early to tell. They are my small cap high risk play.

1/ They are using CAAR-T to target autoimmune disorders. They use a CAAR receptor that encodes a self antigen that drives auto immune disease. The concept is the self reactive B cells should target binding to the CAAR receptor and the T cell would kill them.

2/ Based on the really low level of memory B cells in the body, it could be very difficult to clear them out. Its a high risk play, but if it works, it could be a huge opportunity.

Read 5 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

4 Oct

Profiling $TIL:

This is a newer company that just went off its lock up period. I don't know the management that well, but it can't be any worse than the disastrous $IOVA. That company is completely broken.

1/ They are working on Tumor Infiltrating Lymphocytes (TIL). This is the most successful use of TCR therapies in solid tumors. This starts with removing a met or doing a biopsy of the tumor. It takes that tumor and breaks it down to get all the antigens for that specific patient.

2/ Those tumor antigens are introduced to the patient's own T cells in the lab to activate them toward those antigens. Those T cells are then put back into the patient with PD1 to target and kill all tumor cells and mets.

Read 7 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

4 Oct

Profiling $CRBU:

This is a new IPO and they are still within the lock up period until late January. I have followed them as a private company at the ARM conferences as part of my overall CRISPR research for years.

1/ I can safely say I feel this is a good management team at this early stage of the game. They are the original CRISPR company holding all the original patents. They also pioneered new technology with chRDNA.

2/ I classify them as cell therapies because that is where their focus is. They have 3 allogeneic CAR-T programs in development while building an iPSC manufacturing for iNK and iT cells.

Read 9 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

3 Oct

Profiling $IPSC:

This is a newer company that recently IPO'd. They are still in the lock up period until mid December. I don't know anything about their management yet. They are working on iPSC cell manufacturing using CRISPR MAD7 editing.

1/ The MAD7 resembles the Cfp1 CAS enzyme. They are focused on developing 2 NK cell programs as their lead programs. They have CNTY-101 which is a standard CD19 and they have CNTY-103 which has CD133.

2/ They are targeting GBM with CNTY-103 which makes this a completely unique program compared to what some other companies are doing. They have some other early CAR-NK and CAR-T programs in development using iPSC.

Read 9 tweets

Biotech2k

@Biotech2k1

3 Oct

Profiling $SANA:

I have only been in $SANA for about 6 months, but I really like their 2 franchises. I also like their management team, although, I don't know them that well.

1/ Their first franchise is the Fusogen programs. This is all about delivering any genetic payload to cells. Their fusogen platform uses virus like particles. If we treated this as a stand alone biotech, I would value it around $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

2/ Their second platform is working to build iPSC manufacturing around hypoimmune cells. This will be right along the lines of what $FATE has built. I would also value this platform around $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

Read 5 tweets

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