Thread by @Alex_Vuving

🧵1⃣ What is GRAND STRATEGY?
This questions boils down to two other questions:
- What is STRATEGY?
- What is GRAND in "grand strategy"?

2⃣ The common definition of strategy in most dictionaries is that it is a PLAN. E.g., strategy is defined as a “carefully developed plan or method for achieving a goal” (Merriam-Webster) or a “plan of action or policy designed to achieve a major or overall aim” (Oxford).

3⃣ Plan is indeed the most popular meaning of the word “strategy.” However, it is utterly useless, even dangerous, for strategists. Why?

4⃣ No plan survives first contact with the enemy. (Verbatim: “No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.” – Helmuth von Moltke, quoteinvestigator.com/2021/05/04/no-…)

5⃣“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” (Dwight Eisenhower)
“The best generals are those who arrive at the results of planning without being tied to plans.” (Winston Churchill)
quoteinvestigator.com/2017/11/18/pla…

6⃣ In my view, STRATEGY is not a PLAN, but a PROCESS, a FRAMEWORK, and an ECOSYSTEM. I'll elaborate below.

7⃣ The vision of strategy as a process, a framework, and an ecosystem allows strategy to be dynamic, flexible, and interactive to adapt to the ever changing circumstances.

8⃣ Strategy as a process: John Lewis Gaddis defines strategy as “the process by which ends are related to means, intentions to capabilities, objectives to resources” in this book:
amazon.com/Strategies-Con…

9⃣ Later, in his 2018 book On Grand Strategy, Gaddis defines "grand strategy" as “the alignment of unlimited aspirations with necessarily limited capabilities.”
amazon.com/Grand-Strategy…

🔟Gaddis's definition of grand strategy bears a resemblance to the US military's definition of strategy as the alignment of ends, ways, and means.

11/ The US Army War College offers this definition: “Strategy is the alignment of ends (aims, objectives), ways (concepts), and means (resources) – informed by risk – to attain goals.”
warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/wrong…

12/ The ends-ways-means-risk methodology has been adopted by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in its doctrine:
"All strategies entail the same fundamental logic of
ends, ways, and means."
jcs.mil/Portals/36/Doc…

13/ The "strategy=ends+ways+means" formula is the object of much criticism. E.g., a good critique by @jwmeiser
press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol…

14/ I find it useful to view strategy as the alignment of ends, ways, and means, but agree with @jwmeiser that we must get rid of the formulaic thinking and the DIME, or even DIMEFILE, model attached to it.

15/ An example of strategy as the process of aligning ends, ways, and means is China's grand strategy in the #SouthChinaSea
- ipdefenseforum.com/2016/08/south-…
- nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas…

16/ PRC's grand strategy in #SouthChinaSea
Ends: Dominance of #SouthChinaSea, Control w/i #NineDashLine
Ways: Gradually shifting the 勢 (shi, strategic configuration, propensity) in favor of PRC dominance through opportunistic and “gray-zone” expansion rather than major battles

17/ PRC's grand strategy in #SouthChinaSea
Ways: 圍棋 (weiqi, game of encirclement), “fill in a vacuum,” fait accompli, “salami slicing,” “cabbage”
Means: People’s war at sea, Three warfares (psychological, public opinion, legal warfare), Weaponization of everything

18/ I came to this analysis about Chinese grand strategy not by relying on any Chinese (secret or public) documents, but by connecting the dots of Chinese behavior, guided by a deep understanding of Chinese strategic culture.
nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas…

19/ This methodology is pungently but succinctly captured by @dhnexon: 'The only legit use of “grand strategy” is in retrospective reconstructions of patterns of foreign-policy behavior.'

https://twitter.com/dhnexon/status/1444463898523021316

20/ This methodology is based on a number of observations:
1. To communicate its strategy to its own people, an organization can put together internal documents that describe the key tenets of its strategy. But this is what it wants, not what really is.

21/ 2. When a document called “strategy” is released to the public, it serves different purposes. It tells a story with which its issuer wants to influence—not just to inform—the audience. As such, it's often not the best description of a strategy.

22/ 3. Behind every purposive action or undertaking there is a strategy. It guides the choice made in response to the circumstances & it relates the resources used by the undertaking to the aims of the undertaking.

23/ A real strategy can be incoherent, inconsistent, self-contradictory, while the ideal strategy must be coherent, efficient, adaptive.
The ideal strategy doesn't need to use all the resources available and can combine seemingly conflicting ways and means.

24/ Strategy as ecosystem: Strategy is a dynamic process that takes place within an ecosystem—the strategic environment—while also creating an ecosystem of its own—the strategy ecosystem.

25/ Strategy as a framework: @ElbridgeColby offers a good statement: “A strategy is a framework, not a master plan. It is predicated on a coherent view of the world and provides a logic within which to make choices and prioritize.”
In this book:
amazon.com/Strategy-Denia…

26/ Strategy is the science of defining goals and creating and organizing resources to achieve those goals while adapting to the changing circumstances and balance of power.

27/ Strategy is as much an art as it is a science. @LawDavF speaks volumes when he says, "Strategy is the art of creating power". Note that power is the ability to achieve goals. More about this in the following tweets.