Let's discuss what influences downwards NFT movement.
1/ Thread
2/ First off - "NFTs" have come to mean MANY different digital industries, from art to gaming to finance.
Each with their own mechanisms for deriving value. Below I'll touch on most, (minus Art). Art is its own thing.
3/ Marketing/awareness.
Some projects are doing epic things but just don't know how to communicate it externally.
Use twitter, use discord, use youtube, etc to continuously inform.
We are moving to a digital space so communicating digitally is absolutely important imo.
4/ Timing.
Projects may be great but your entry timing may not. Below is cryptopunks where there was a 69E -> 42E average price "dip".
-40%.
Most people will panic, but if you think Cryptopunks will do well then it's an easy hodl.
5/ More on Timing.
This time those slick @coolcatsnft you see everywhere.
There was a ~50% drop since just after presale hype till the project slowed down. BUT does it matter long term?
In this and many cases where community + team is strong. No.
6/ Hype.
Hype and anticipating has a lot to do with price fall.
Maybe project is "over hyped" when you're investing, (everyone on Twitter is yelling about it).
But when the music stops, prices usually pull back.
7/ Whales.
Whales can suppress price if they want to.
Curio cards is still quite whale dominated so although promising long term, whales are slowly moving on.
(Just a matter of time).
You can see this guy accepting low bids/selling berries over the last week.
8/ Dud/low effort.
Well, sometimes the project sucks. Leadership non existent, no ability or knowledge to scale and don't know how to run community.
So long term, it could just be a dud project.
Presales are fun but if teams don't build after then it's a slow move down.
9/ Crypto movement.
When ETH/BTC/Alts move up or down very quickly, in the short term - I've noticed NFTs drop in price.
If ETH hypothetically hits $50k in a week the whole ETH NFT market might see a sell off as people can cash out more USD by selling asap. Usually temporary.
10/ Too much supply.
A project can just have too much supply which after presale, can't hold up prices long term.
It's a problem when there's very little development activity.
Not a problem if there's a lot of continuous activity.
11/ No depth.
No depth, everyone were flippers who ended up just trying to buy and sell.
Well, if everyone is trying to sell and no buyers, (due to there being no genuine interest/depth in the project other than presale hype), then prices generally go down.
12/ Rug pull.
Team ends up taking the money and vanishing.
When anon teams raise Millions and can disappear without a trace, you best believe some will.
13/ So how do you avoid all this?
Experience. But sometimes you can’t.
Every experienced NFT investor will hit some duds, but the handful of profitable investments outweigh the rest.
14/ Goal is to have and increase capital so you can take MANY shots, learning from duds and capitalising when right.
The more you stay here and can spot legit projects, the better you'll do! Experience.