Thread by @althecat

Cyclone Shaheen-Gulab, currently over Oman [trans: Falcon-Rose] appears to be taking a direct path towards the Horn of Africa.

Here's the last 24 hours, during which the cyclone/hurricane has made landfall in Oman and is moving south-west into the great empty desert area of the Arabian Peninsula. #ArabianStorms #DesertRain

Here we see the last 24 hours over Ethiopia, the Horn and the south western Arabian Peninsula. [Addis is just above the "ET" in "Ethiopia" on the map. A small dot of light during the night.

Here's a 10 day forecast from the CMC model, which is possibly the best model with respect to modelling atmospheric water dynamics in the Middle East.

In this model Shaheen-Gulab does not disintegrate over the empty quarter and arrives at the Red Sea next Saturday.

Next weekend looks like it will bring the heaviest rains, and that following that there should be a bit of a break in rain as the Indian Ocean is now fairly quiet looking.

Here we see a cross section of the tropical monsoon area to the East of the Horn all the way to the West Pacific. The West Pacific remains fairly busy at this point with two designated cyclonic systems continuing to produce lots atmospheric water which is moving West.

Here's the latest long range GFS forecast for the Indian monsoon. As you can see its not quite over yet, but it does seem to be losing its intensity. However as the 2nd peak in the Indian Ocean cyclone season runs through December, there remains a possibility of more storms.

To end this weather update here's a high resoliution picture of Shaheen Gulab approaching landfall yesterday morning.

Check out @Arab_Storms for comprehensive video coverage of the impact of the storm.