1. Use of Article 16 does not “replace the Protocol”: it allows a limited and conditional suspension of parts of it. And for other “problematic” parts (eg Article 10 on State aid) there is no arguable legal basis for Article 16 measures.
But renegotiation is not a right that any party to a treaty or contract can assert: it requires the other party to agree. That requires persuasion, not bluster.
(And since many of the proposed replacement terms involve large elements of “trust us on this”, displaying trustworthiness might be a sensible strategy.)
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Those who call for “triggering Article 16” need first to understand the Article and its limitations. On its own, it’s not a call that makes much sense.
In particular, they need to understand that Art16 is not a simple “trigger” that can be pulled at will along the lines of Article 50 TEU. Nor does it have any general effect on the UK’s obligations under the Protocol (again, unlike Art 50).
Rather, Article 16 is a basis for particular targeted measures that are “strictly necessary”, including in scope and duration, (not just “expedient”) to deal with serious disturbances or trade diversion. They must be the minimum necessary to deal with the issue.
In thinking about what Labour’s policy should be on that there are two sorts of uncertainty. One is uncertainty about where the country will be - and where the public mood will be - in 2 or 3 years time.
That is, to an extent, fair enough: provided it doesn’t stop Labour from trying to shape that mood rather than simply responding to it.
“Free movement of people” is a creation of EU law: part of the single market. It only has meaning as part of the EU or EEA.
But plenty of neighbouring states have agreements allowing wide mobility outside that EU law framework. Very close to home: Ireland and the U.K. Further away: Australia and NZ. And other examples of states allowing wide mobility between them.
It’s a really good piece by @dsmitheconomics - and raises the question of whether we now need a department charged with labour force issues: what used to be (until the 90s) the Department of Employment.
My answer would be “yes”: and also to take immigration policy away from the “just say no” culture of the Home Office and give it to the revived department.
(Immigration obviously raises wider issues than just labour force ones. But it is a key part of any rational labour force strategy. And you are likely to get a saner and more humane policy if you start with a labour force perspective than a “keep foreigners out” one.
Not really a thread - and haven’t checked the detailed statements: but Schedule 3 to the Competition Act 1998 contains appropriate powers. legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/41/…
NB too though that Brexit offers scope for tidying up often bizarre rules on food (biscuits/cake; crisps made from potato) without extending VAT to more food (something chancellors have been reluctant to do).
All though complicated by the NI Protocol, where the VAT directive still partly holds: change GB rules and the Irish Sea barrier gets that little bit higher.