Thread by @Staedtler

Like I keep telling everyone - my goldfish - Johnson has got a phantom majority.
He's got a majority for all sorts of things like selling seats in parliament and political bribes. But not for Brexit.

It works like this.
Johnson has got a party committed to and expecting to see a total Brexit. That can be done only if you leave Northern Ireland behind.
Because Johnson can't put a border in Ireland

And this is the difference between real government and loudmouth boasting. In real life - not the playpen Johnson is familiar with - government carries responsibility.

Johnson has to keep to the Good Friday Agreement.
Do you remember when Donald Trump went stamping around bellowing that he wasn't going to accept the election result? But in the end he did. Remember? Same with Johnson.

Johnson is committed to a treaty he doesn't like - The Good Friday Agreement. He doesn't like it because it's in his way, and like Trump he bellows at things he doesn't understand.

The Good Friday Agreement is part of the responsibility of Johnson's job.
On the other hand he's also boasted himself to a total separation from Europe.
Which is only possible if you split the United Kingdom

Johnson can't split the United Kingdom and survive - which is why he has repudiated the treaty that would do exactly that.
Neither can he break the Good Friday Agreement.

You see the position he's in. he can't put a border in Ireland. He can't put one in the Irish Sea. And yet he has promised everyone a total separation from Europe.

Everyone can see the problem, but everyone keeps misreading the answer. Johnson has had people wiping his arse all his life, but now for the first time there's no one to do that

There is nowhere Johnson can put a border, and he can't survive if he doesn't.

Now, if you ignore all Johnson's boasting, what you've got left is fact, and you can see what's going to happen.
Ignore the boasting

Johnson is going to maintain the Good Friday Agreement.
That's absolute.
Johnson is also committed to a total separation from Europe. His political survival depends on that.

What it means is that Johnson has to put a border in the Irish Sea, and the minute he does so, he's finished.

Theresa May was the same. She imagined herself having ten years, but she had to go because she couldn't get past Brexit.
And I'm saying Johnson the same.

If Johnson can't get past Brexit he'll have to resign. But whichever way he tries he's going to resign.
He can be a stubborn as Theresa May if he wants, but he's not going to get it done, and like her he'll have to resign.