Thread by @mmnjug

As @IEBCKenya begins a month-long mass voter registration today, an analysis of population data reveals 11 counties have the potential to list the highest number of new voters. - @NationAfrica

.@IEBCKenya targets 6M new voters, but an analysis of the number of eligible voters - those who are not registered and young people expected to attain voting age on time for next year’s elections - shows a figure of about 9M potential new voters.

Collectively, the 11 counties account for nearly half of the estimated total number of new voters by 2022 - 45% or 4.2M

These counties are:

Nairobi - 809,583
Kiambu - 489,361
Nakuru - 397,133
Bungoma - 371,241
Machakos - 337,993
Kakamega - 337,091
Turkana - 316,705
Kilifi - 331,889
Meru - 302,929
Uasin Gishu - 285,456
Kajiado - 272,033

Instructively, Nakuru, where @IEBCKenya chose to officially launch the programme, has the third highest number of potential new voters.

This total figure of 9M potential new voters is arrived at by reviewing official population data by county based on age against registered voters per county by the last elections in 2017, when there were 19.6M registered voters.

However, the difference could be explained in young people projected to be eligible by August 2022, eligible voters without an identity card and others who could have been listed since October 1, 2018, when @IEBCKenya launched continuous voter registration in Makueni.

But the number is within acceptable limits, considering @IEBCKenya has estimated the number of polling stations will increase to 53,000 in next year’s elections. In 2017, there were 19.6M registered voters spread out in 40,883 polling stations.

The Elections Act caps the number of voters per polling station at 700. In 2022, based on the Nation’s analysis, the total number of registered voters is projected to increase to 28M.

.@IEBCKenya targeted 6M additional voters is equal to the number by which the voters registered grew between 2013 and 2017.

The number of registered voters increased from 14.3 million in 2013 to 19.6 million in 2017.

The 11 counties with 4.2M potential new voters rep close to 50% of the estimated new voters bit.ly/3Deh2kS via @NationAfrica