A sentence I don't need to write now (already done):

"Consumers are crazy to buy things because the world is awash with dollars from government stimulus, higher savings and pent-up demand. PlayStations, laptops, phones, gym equipment – you name it people are trying to buy it,”

Systems were not set up to deal with a surge in demand of this magnitude over a time period this short. The time it will take for systems to be rebuilt and reconfigured to meet this new reality will be longer than most people imagine. Atoms must be moved. amp.theguardian.com/business/2021/…

At the same time as the demand for goods increased some key people failed to forecast the speed at which the demand for chips would increase.

Software ate the chip supply.

The best way to escape responsibility for this forecasting error is to point a finger at another cause.

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Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

2 Oct

The best oyster in the world is a Kusshi in my view. What is your favorite?
kusshioysters.com/about/bc-oyste…

We are growing Kumamotos which "are worshiped for their amazing sweetness and clean, fruity aromas. These Japanese natives grow agonizingly slowly." I wish we could grow Kusshi's too. We also grow triploid Pacific oysters. buy.taylorshellfishfarms.com/oysters/kumamo…

As everyone knows, I was considered the favorite to win the West Coast Oyster Shucking Championship held this weekend every year since 1982 in Shelton Washington.

Due to the Covid pandemic the championship was virtual this year. I will "keep clam" about my practice routine.

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Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

28 Sep

1/ "We're talking about math of tons -- 100 or 150? Musk says Starship has 10x the payload of Falon 9 for 15x lower cost, hundredfold better. Lots of estimates here, but they add up to "Profound," Musk says." theverge.com/2021/9/28/2269…

2/ "Starlink is good in and of itself. It’s a very nice complement and a necessary complement to 5G and fiber, and it provides a revenue stream across our next generation rocket.” Starlink really isn't designed for use in the city." Elon Musk

3/ "Starlink tops out at 3 or 4% of [global telecom] revenue. He would like a bigger chunk of the global ISP pie and then use those increased profits to fund more SpaceX work. Starlink is for the least-served 5%. It's "not a threat to 5G or fiber or anything like that.” Elon Musk

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Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

27 Sep

1/ "There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns twelve percent, and you can take the profits out at the end of the year. The second earns twelve percent, but all the excess cash must be reinvested-there’s never any cash."

2/ "It reminds me of the guy who sells construction equipment -- he looks at his used machines, taken in as customers bought new ones, and says, “There’s all of my profit, rusting in my yard.” We hate that kind of business." Charlie Munger (2003 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting)

3/ "We love businesses that can earn high rates on even more capital than it earns. Most of our businesses generate lots of money, but can't generate high returns on incremental capital like See's. We look for [ways for See's to wisely reinvest capital], but they don't exist." WB

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Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

20 Sep

1/ My strategy is to "not sell the dip"-- but you be you tho.

2/ "The market sell-off that escalated overnight we believe is primarily driven by technical selling flows (CTAs and option hedgers) in an environment of poor liquidity, and overreaction of discretionary traders to perceived risks. Our thesis: buy the dip.”bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3/ "The upbeat view contrasts with Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, whose worst case called for the S&P 500 to plunge more than 20% from its peak, a scenario that the strategist says looks more possible."

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