True; many institutions performed well in resisting Trump (state election administrators, the judiciary, the military). But also true that a second term of Trump could pose a more profound threat - look at Orban's Hungary after he regained power.
More fundamentally, I have to admit I don't understand the impulse to rush into contrarianism on this point. Even if Kagan et al. are overestimating the risk of a successful coup or the equivalent, @DouthatNYT grants that such outcomes are possible. Isn't that a case for alarm?
If @DouthatNYT were at the airport and the gate agent said, well, the pilot may try to crash the plane but the co-pilot and the crew probably won't let him get away with it, would he tell everyone to calm down about the risks?
As always in Trump Times, two things can be true:
1. The risk of outright authoritarianism is being overstated by some critics/pundits.
2. The risk of substantial democratic erosion or worse is unacceptably high.
And even if Trump is an incompetent would-be authoritarian, what is happening at the state level (where elections are decided) is highly alarming
More on how state-level subversion could take the process of the rails - thread

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More from @BrendanNyhan

30 Sep
The credibility revolution in soc sci research is important but some humility is in order - DID models misspecified for years, RD estimates often noisy/underpowered and published selectively, and exclusion restrictions in IV models often highly dubious. (Why I like experiments!)
Very true! Experiments are hardly immune to bad methods and selective reporting, especially at tiny sample sizes of past (ugh). But arguably still far more robust as a method - the ATE relies on very weak assumptions compared to, e.g., IV/RD/DID
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
"by changing the title of the work to "Take the Money and Run" Haaning 'questions artists' rights and their working conditions in order to establish more equitable norms within the art industry.'" Uh, ok....
Deadwood faculty member: "by not doing any work for twenty years, I question scholars' rights and their working conditions in order to establish more equitable norms within the academy"
Inspired by @hardsci
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
Right out in the open - a white supremacist trope now being mainstreamed by the leading host on America's most important conservative media outlet.
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
More and more candidates running on ads based on literally shooting objects representing the other side - what would you say if you saw it in another country?
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
Old enough to remember when Afghanistan was going to dominate the midterms, end Biden's presidency, etc. trends.google.com/trends/explore…
(inspired by the great @profLind)
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
No one should be comforted by the Milley news. Trump's instability and effort to overturn the election unfortunately inspired a new kind of norm violation. However well-intentioned it may have been, we don't want generals deciding to take over foreign policy from civilians.
Read 4 tweets

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