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Brian Beutler Profile picture
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6 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
A point in favor of the “savvy power move by Schumer” theory is that Sinema/Manchin donors fully had their backs on not changing the filibuster. At some point, probably after today’s vote, Schumer’s approach will upend the alignment. Corporate America will beg them go nuclear.
Of course, that’s why we’re also likely to get the most limited rule change possible, and an impermanent debt limit extension.
Normally these interests would have pull in Republican offices and would try to scare up 10 GOP votes for cloture. But Republicans clearly DGAF about the well-being of the country and it’s easier to count to two than to 10.
Schumer may have wanted this choosing moment, but if that’s right, the opportunity only presented itself because McConnell asserted Republicans would filibuster a debt limit hike and provide no votes to break the filibuster. Let’s not omit that context.

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More from @brianbeutler

Brian Beutler Profile picture
6 Oct
Reject this offer.
Image
Schumer should thrill at the opportunity to say that Democrats gave Trump no grief over the debt limit for four years, and since this is how Republicans have repaid them, they can either end their filibuster or Dems will end it for them.
Read 5 tweets
Brian Beutler Profile picture
5 Oct
Ok, so below you’ll find a boring and somewhat traumatizing Twitter poll. Basically I want to know where people who follow me are on the “will Trump run again?” question. I’m about 60-40 that he won’t.
If I had to bet, I’d bet he’ll take the money and run, and avoid the risk of another ego-crushing defeat. But obviously it’s also very easy to imagine that his lust for vengeance and need for protection from the law will overwhelm his greed and cowardice.
So here’s the poll. Will Trump:
Read 4 tweets
Brian Beutler Profile picture
3 Oct
I think most promising development of last week was the degree to which it left the handful of people tempted to tank Build Back Better (particularly Sinema) ostracized and isolated, rather than celebrated as Mavericks (though some journalists have pushed that line).
As the White House and Dem leadership try to glean what Sinema “wants” in these negotiations, they should keep in mind that what she seems to REALLY want is an opportunity to vote no in the limelight and be remembered as a legend for it.
This moment seems less and less like a silly antic and more and more like a deep view into her psyche. But a non-binding minimum-wage amendment that was gonna fail anyway couldn’t generate the kind of suspense and import that McCain did when he killed ACA repeal.
Read 5 tweets
Brian Beutler Profile picture
1 Oct
Let’s talk about how it came to be that Democrats, with concurrent majorities and multiple huge challenges before them, may pass nothing, and even seem unsure how they’re going to stop the minority party from plunging the country into an economic calamity. mailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi…
Zoom out far enough and it becomes clear that the difficulties Democrats have had enacting Joe Biden's agenda don't all stem from historical accidents. crooked.us19.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=88…
The main problem as I see it is the party constituted itself around an appeal to the median voter rooted in bipartisanship and moderation, which has primed frontline members to be scared of governing resolutely, and emboldened centrist members to hijack the party's agenda
Read 6 tweets
Brian Beutler Profile picture
1 Oct
The popular narrative may have been wrong, but it was popular in large part because Republicans didn’t want to abandon voodoo economics, so they fake-embraced immigration, and because they also kept control of the House, Democrats had to choose between immigration and nothing.
It’s interesting to imagine what the world might look like if Dems had won back the trifecta in 2012, but they didn’t. Maybe that led to Trump. But then they fought Trump on narrow health care grounds, and are now trying to spend trillions race neutrally by taxing the rich.
It’s true that race and immigration are more prominent issues in the culture now, and that’s reflected in some party/party-adjacent rhetoric. But unless the argument is “re-elected Obama should’ve done nothing” no one can point to a single, fateful error because there wasn’t one.
Read 4 tweets
Brian Beutler Profile picture
28 Sep
Feels more and more likely this ends with Schumer giving Republicans a choice between ending their dumb filibuster and losing his filibuster power forever, which would frankly be a pretty good outcome relative to alternative scenarios.
Obviously I think Dems should’ve abolished the filibuster years ago or yesterday, and not just with a narrow carveout for debt limits or whatever. But compared to reopening the budget resolution and basically taking orders from McConnell, the ultimatum option is way better.
*their filibuster power forever.
Read 7 tweets

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