Thread by @crampell

A short thread on what this would mean in practice, and why some Dem lawmakers distrust that it will happen. 🧵

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1445763736006844426

If Dems use the reconciliation process to raise the debt limit, that would normally require several complicated time-consuming steps (many hours of debate, "vote-a-ramas") to get it done.
Not a lot of time is left, however.

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1439318587097948160

Probably the whole process would take 2+ weeks; we may not actually have 2 weeks before Treasury runs out of cash. (There is some uncertainty about exact timing of the so-called "X-Date.")

However: Republicans *could* agree to waive or shorten some of those usual time-consuming steps in this process. They could agree to fewer hours of debate, no long drawn-out vote-a-ramas with politically difficult amendments, etc.
That's what McConnell is signaling they might do

However, Dems don't trust whether he'll keep his word. Or, whether he can keep the craziest members of his caucus from abiding by his pledge

In fact there is a risk that some unruly R's could slow things even further than that 2+ week estimate suggests.

R's could, for example, boycott the Senate Budget Comm hearing needed to amend the budget resolution -- which might effectively block resolution from getting to floor. rollcall.com/2021/09/22/pot…

I've heard people say: "I can’t believe Republicans would block this because this is exactly what McConnell is asking for."
But given levels of distrust right now between the parties, and some particularly nihilistic members of GOP, you can understand why Dems might be skeptical

Dems argue that they can avoid this whole drawn-out process (and its attendant risks) by dealing with the debt ceiling through "regular order" rather than reconciliation. That is, just voting on a bill the normal way
However

That would require either: R's agree not to filibuster the bill (which would be a reasonable compromise; D's did this in past). R's say no way.
OR: D's could eliminate filibuster in debt limit context so that R's can no longer hold the full faith and credit of U.S. hostage.

D's keep saying that duh they should just kill the filibuster! But doing so would require Manchin's consent, and he says he won't provide it. Precisely because D's can deal with this through reconciliation already, avoiding filibuster (...except for the risks explained above)