Thread by @gelliottmorris

This Pew poll seems to indicate support for Trump among Republicans is a lot lower than either the 2024 trial-heat polling or my general read of the media conventional wisdom suggests. Only 44% say he should run for president again. pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021…

Not really sure how to reconcile this all, to be honest. My hard prior is that, if the GOP had a primary today, Trump would win a resounding victory. But maybe that prior is wrong. When we find conflicting evidence the answer is usually somewhere in between!

Let’s do an exercise:

Poll 1: If the 2024 GOP primary was held today, with all the rules from 2016, and it was Trump v all the top GOP leaders who _might_ end up running, would he win?

Poll 2/2: If the 2024 GOP primary was held today, **and the winner was decided using ranked choice voting or another majority-winner method**, and it was Trump v all the top GOP leaders who _might_ end up running, would he win?

I think Trump would absolutely win in the first scenario, and would have a slightly lower probability but still be favored in the latter. But what I’m trying to get it is how much of these probabilities are bc he’s the maximalist GOP pick or bc of the rules of the primary system.

Another consideration is elites. In 2016, I bet a 50-50 superdelegate v delegate split would have hurt Trump relative to the actual system, whereas in 2024 I think it could _help_ him relative to levels of mass support, as elites seem more pro-Trump even than Republican voters.

There is a very strong media dynamic too. Anyone who can straddle the no-Trump and Trump-alternative wings of the GOP will instantly be criticized into submission on Fox News/OANN/Newsmax. I don’t think the outcome is really in doubt but it’s instructive to think through the 1/2

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1445800431398100993

2/2 … factors that push outcomes away from what you’d expect based on good polling of attitudes.