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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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7 Oct, 8 tweets, 2 min read
India: Assam, a state of 30M people, has 314 cases per day, 1 per 100,000 population.

Current Covid-19 advisory designates any area with more than 10 cases in the last 7 days as a "total containment zone."

1/
 covid19.assam.gov.in/covid_asm_advi…
In a total containment zone, unauthorized entry or exit is prohibited.

Essential services operate within limited hours. Government, offices, education, and business establishments are closed, with few exemptions.

2/
covid19.assam.gov.in/containment-zo…
In addition, there are state wide restrictions including suspension of all inter-district travel services, a mask mandate, limited gathering sizes, even outside of total containment zones.

3/
Assam is one example of India's overall push towards a Zero Covid strategy. Many Indian states are at (or near) elimination of COVID-19.

4/
Assam has 300 daily cases in population of 30 million: 1 case per 100,000

Delhi has 40 infections per day in a population of 31 million: about 1 case per million

Uttar Pradesh has less than 20 infections per day, in a population of 220 million: less than 1 in 10,000,000

5/
The disappearance of COVID-19 in these states is not an accident.

It is a result of explicit policy choices, like Assam's total containment zones, or Uttar Pradesh's reward system for paying villages that have the fewest confirmed COVID-19 cases.

6/
Epidemiologists in India acknoweldge this truth, with statements like:

"Relaxations obviously do not help in curbing disease transmission",

and

"Zero Covid may not happen but we have to ensure that we bring down transmission to negligible levels."

7/
 hindustantimes.com/india-news/30-…
This is a RT of @geekblake

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Oct
COVID-19 must be eliminated, not become endemic, if America is to survive

"More and more people seem to be accepting the idea the future will include COVID-19.

"Those people don’t understand what that means.

1/
dailykos.com/story/2021/10/…
Take The Wall Street Journal, which on Friday published an article stating “COVID-19 will soon become endemic—and the sooner the better.”
"This... is not just a formula for millions of deaths, but an absolute ticket to the end of the line for America, and likely for what..

2/
"we currently think of as modern society. We simply cannot live with endemic COVID-19.

"Hang on, let me say that again: We. Cannot. Live. With. Endemic. COVID-19. I can be louder. And I will be.

3/
Read 34 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
4 Oct
India update: 30 districts continue to record high Covid positivity rate: Data

tldr: “Zero Covid may not happen but we have to ensure that we bring down transmission to negligible levels.”

1/
 hindustantimes.com/india-news/30-…
"At least 30 districts in six states continue to report weekly Covid-19 positivity rates of 10% or more, even as the national positivity rate shows a decline for almost five months now. As many as 13 of the 30 districts are in Kerala.

2/
"The weekly positivity rate has been less than 3% for 13 straight days nationally, health ministry data show. Positivity rates show the prevalence of the disease compared with the number of tests conducted.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Oct
Very clear and important article:

Viewpoint: Here’s Why COVID-19 Is Much Worse Than Flu

1/
infectioncontroltoday.com/view/viewpoint…
"Unlike influenza, SARS-CoV-2 uses ACE2 receptors to infiltrate cells. Similar to HIV, SARS-CoV-2 can silently spread throughout the host’s body and attack almost every organ.

2/
"Medicine appears to have largely bought into the SARS-CoV-2 seasonal influenza analogy. Everything appears to be focused on pulmonary disease. Fringe coronavirus deniers started the narrative that COVID-19 was like the flu.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Sep
A 10-year-old Suffolk girl who died of COVID had been assigned at school to walk with sick students to nurse's office

richmond.com/news/local/edu… via @rtdnews
A 10-year-old girl in Suffolk died Monday from COVID-19 after being tasked with walking sick children in her class to the clinic, her mother wrote on Facebook. She is the 12th person in Virginia younger than 20 to die from the virus.

2/
Teresa Makenzie Sperry, a student at Hillpoint Elementary School, was admitted to Children’s Hospital of The King’s Daughters in Norfolk and died after her heart failed, wrote her mother, Nicole Sperry.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 Sep
Poor policy decisions are putting parents and children in an untenable situation. Many schools are not safe. Schools and universities have been open for nearly a month in the US and there has been record child illness, hospitalization and death.

1/
Infected children are bringing covid home. In one neighborhood in Chicago two mothers died last week after contracting covid just a couple of weeks after school opened. Making children instruments of their parents deaths is a cruelty that is against every tenet of human rights

2
Harm to children in hospitalizations, long covid, deaths repeat around the world. Not only are schools not being made safe, despite available ways to do so, parents are being coerced to send their children to unsafe schools by punitive laws, or lack of safer alternatives.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
26 Sep
Thread: Breakthrough infections

Article: Breakthrough cases are a bigger problem than you’ve heard.

Key point: Vaccination reduces the risk of Delta infections by 2X.

But what about severity? See also article, but let's look at important CDC data

1/
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Key CDC data:

“percentages of fully vaccinated persons infected…were hospitalized (3.2%), were admitted to an intensive care unit (0.5%), and required mechanical ventilation (0.2%) compared with…unvaccinated (7.6%, 1.5%, and 0.5%, respectively)”

2/
 cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
According to these numbers the ratio of unvaccinated to vaccinated
hospitalizations is 7.6%/3.2% = 2.4X,
ICU cases 1.5%/0.5% = 3X, and
ventilations 0.5%/0.2% = 2.5X.

So the ratios are about 2.5-3X reduction in severity due to vaccination.

3/
Read 12 tweets

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