Economies and diseconomies of scale in management.

0 Employees.

With no one to manage, there is no one with whom to communicate. You will never be more efficient.

1/n
1 employee.

You now must communicate what, how, and why to the employee you manage. Efficiency falls from this communication. However, accountability is high because everything that happens in the department can be attributed to the one person.

2/n
2 employees.

Huge dropoff in efficiency, because, not only do the two employees need to communicate between themselves and you, but you need to know who is responsible for what. You must observe closely to reward fairly or no one will work hard.

3/n
8 employees.

Efficiency continues to fall as you add more people. Efficiency jumps back up when you have enough scale to hire a manager that you now directly manage, but now you have 3 layers of management and managers are farther from the actual work, reducing efficiency.

4/n
16 employees.

Andy Grove said a manager can competently manage up to 7 people (7*2 + 2 = 16). You now have enough people to justify hiring a second manager, but you now have the same problems you had when you had 2 employees. Which manager is responsible for the outcome?

5/n
I probably should have drawn the last dot lower than 2 employees, but you get the idea.

It's really interesting how efficiency bounces up and down when you hit various points of scale!

Thoughts, comments, questions, criticism?

6/6
Bonus tweet: I fucked up.

This is probably how the graph should have looked...

🤦‍♂️

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More from @Molson_Hart

8 Oct
The worst experience I've ever had on Twitter!

A lot of people have been asking me what happened, so here's a 🧵of how fucked up Twitter can get, not only for you, but for your family.
It all started at dinner when I decided to calculate the living expenses of someone I know.

I was amazed at how high they were considering how poorly he lived for what he was spending.

I thought to myself, "hmm this is interesting, I'll tweet it."

It went viral.

Most people didn't understand my point (which was not well articulated) and thought that I was suggesting that spending over $1mm/year was not extravagant.

And the guillotines came out.
Read 20 tweets
3 Oct
I tweeted about how much it costs to live in Manhattan and in between threats to guillotine me (someone even suggested a wood-chipper!) someone posted an interesting graph from the Fed showing wealth by percentile group.

It's pretty wild.

1/n

federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/da…
1989's Top 1% Share of Wealth: 23.6%
2021: 32.3%

1989's 90-99% Percentile Share of Wealth: 37.3%
2021: 37.7%

1989's 50-90% Percentile Share of Wealth: 35.5%
2021: 27.8%

1989's 0-50% Percentile Share of Wealth: 3.7%
2021: 2.3%

2/n
The most commonly cited solution to this problem is to "tax the rich" but since 1989 we've done that while the wealth share got worse.

Top tax rate went from 28% to 37%.

Not an apples to apples comparison because of inflation but rates also went down for low earners.

3/n
Read 7 tweets
2 Oct
The US consumer good economy in a nutshell right now:

Corporate handouts: EIDL, PPP, ERC, and 2020’s earnings money

VS

Supply chain: rapidly accelerating costs across the board

VS

Consumer savings: UI, stimulus money, child tax credits, and rising wages

What happens?

1/2
Throw a little bullwhip inventory effect, price reflexivity, fomo, human psychology, and tons of debt in there.

And I don’t see how this doesn’t lead to a subprime like economic crisis.

2/2
Bonus: What’s crazy about this is that you also have shortages and government issues like infrastructure and the debt ceiling (did this get fixed?) that I didn’t even mention.

I just don’t see how we get through this without a blow up 🤷‍♂️
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
Covid lockdowns and supply chain disruptions in Vietnam, as told by e-mails.

E-mail 1: July 8, 2021.

Expected resumption date July 26, 2021

1/n
E-mail 2: July 19, 2021

Expected resumption date: August 2, 2021

2/n
E-mail 3: August 2, 2021

Expected resumption date: August 14, 2021

3/n
Read 7 tweets
28 Sep
I’m starting to really freak out now about inflation more than ever.

I thought inflation was coming because a) we printed money and gave it to people which is different from QE b) shipping costs were exploding c) I saw some wage pressures in the usa

But what I didn’t see

1/2
Was raw material spikes in China. We saw them in the USA but they mostly could be explained by weird covid supply shocks like mills and meat plants not being able to operate because of social distancing.

Now we are seeing raw materials spike in China.

2/3
Three different suppliers have not only complained about this but are really bearish about the future.

One also has not had power for 3 days…

When you throw raw material increases on top of everything else, it gets bad.

If people and businesses start buying ahead of time

3/4
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
It still feels to me that people are really underestimating the price increases and shortages they are going to see on imported consumer goods.

People are saying “they’ll just buy software and gift cards instead.”

1/2
I don’t think people will trust gift cards amidst rising prices. I mean…would you? We’re going to see big price increases online and empty shelves online. “Oh well, here’s a gift card that won’t be usable for months and when it is usable it’ll be worth less”.

2/3
I don’t see that happening. The people who hoard toilet paper whenever there’s a shortage ain’t going to trust gift cards.

And as for software, grandma has no idea how to gift that. Neither do your parents.

Very interesting time to be alive.

3/3
Read 7 tweets

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