1/ Any fellow molecular biologists want to attempt answering this question: What is the probability that the tropism of the virus shifts due to vaccine-accelerated Spike evolution leading to binding of novel receptors other than ACE2?
2/ Since vaccine roll out, the Spike ORF has exhibited high mutation rates and entropy.
3/ If the structure of Spike shifts far enough away where it gains the ability to dock to another transmembrane protein (while maintaining proteolytic conversion via TMPRSS2 or other like protease), the virus could preferentially gain access to other cell/tissue types.
4/ In addition to altering the pathophysiology of the virus, the shift in tropism could change the mode of transmission.
5/ I know other possible entry receptors are under investigation (CD147, CD26, neuropilin-1, ANPEP, ENPEP, AGTR2, etc), but none of these appear to be major routes. But certainly a shift in Spike affinity could change the game with any of these.
6/ One concerning scenario is an enhanced ability to infect certain types of immune cells, imparting the virus with immune evading capabilities.
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1/ Vaccination Math = Let’s assuredly kill K% of people now and medically harm H% of people now because X% and Y% may (or may not) die and be harmed later.
To assess risk/reward, you need to know K, H, X, and Y. You also need a factor to account for the future “may or may not.”
2/ The factors that play into “may or may not” include modeling the herd immunity threshold (natural), viral evolution/attenuation rate, AND the adoption of current and new treatments, among other factors. We’ll call this factor “M”.
3/ Honest question: Do you think the powers that be did this type of math before pulling the trigger on the unprecedented campaign to vaccinate every person on the planet?
1/ Myocarditis rates reported in VAERS were significantly higher in youths between the ages of 13 to 23 (p<0.0001) with ∼80% occurring in males. They found 19 times the expected number of myocarditis cases in the vaccination volunteers over background.
2/ In addition, a 5-fold increase in myocarditis rate was observed subsequent to dose 2 as opposed to dose 1 in 15-year-old males.
3/ Of the total myocarditis reports, 6 individuals died (1.1%) and of these, 2 were under 20 years of age - 1 was 13.
1/ “Fully vaccinated were more likely than unvaccinated persons to be infected by variants carrying mutations associated with decreased antibody neutralization.”, and “In unvaccinated cases, most viruses consisted of non-resistant variants”
2/ In addition, the increase in the frequency of more antibody-resistant strains in the population correlates with the increase in the frequency of vaccination in the population
3/ “and the percentage of sequenced cases that were vaccine breakthroughs increased from 0% to 31.8% from February to June”
1/ “Of the 42 cases diagnosed in this outbreak, 38 were fully vaccinated…
The calculated attack rate among all exposed patients and staff was 10.6% for staff and 23.7% for patients, in a population with 96.2% vaccination rate”.
2/ On the day of diagnosis, only 24 individuals were symptomatic, but in the following days, 36 had become symptomatic. Among the patients, eight became severely ill, six critically ill and five of the critically ill died.
3/ “Moreover, several transmissions probably occurred between two individuals both wearing surgical masks, and in one instance using full PPE, including N-95 mask, face shield, gown and gloves.”
Comparison of neutralization titers over 6 months in young adults (Control) and Nursing Home Residents. Two Subgroups: 1) Prior Infection then Vaccinated. 2) Infection Naive then Vaccinated. Those with prior infection demonstrate greater capacity for sustained neutralization.
Even though the median drops about 18 fold over 6 months in both subgroups, those with prior infection maintain a ~3-4 fold higher neutralization titer over the course of 6 months post vax, with a larger percentage of spread above the median than the infection naive.
In addition, approximately 70% of the infection naive group in nursing home residents demonstrated neutralization titers that were below the lower limit of detection (LLD) after 6 months post vax.