(THREAD) Measuring how people and firms expect inflation to develop is not easy. That’s why we focused on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators, such as the implications of relevant market prices ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops…
1/5
1/5
Our research suggests longer-term inflation expectations have become less well anchored in the euro area since the global financial and European debt crises, although different metrics point to conflicting signals about the timing and scale of this process
2/5
2/5
As well as working as standalone forecasts, we found inflation expectations can benefit forecasting when included in modelling and can inform scenario and risk analysis
3/5
3/5
Going forward, we need:
1⃣ more data on inflation expectations held by people and firms
2⃣ a comprehensive framework for assessing (un)anchoring
3⃣ more consideration of expectation measures in forecasting models
4/5
1⃣ more data on inflation expectations held by people and firms
2⃣ a comprehensive framework for assessing (un)anchoring
3⃣ more consideration of expectation measures in forecasting models
4/5
Want to know who contributed to this research? Check out the list of all authors and contributors from the ECB and national central banks across the euro area in the full occasional paper ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops…
5/5
5/5
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
