COVID has been almost extinguished in Delhi. Reported positivity rate of 0.06%. I wish that Canadian or US public health authorities would check it out so that we could know whether data from Delhi is fake or whether they are on to something.
2/ while ivermectin stans are always click to triumph for ivermectin, there's another possibility: maybe their "old-fashioned" vaccines are working better against variants, esp Delta, than Pfizer mRNA which (AIUI) is very specific to one virus feature.
3/ eight months ago, most authorities thought that, when we got to 70% vaccinations, R0 would be well below 1 and cases would then recede quite rapidly. As someone who works with data, I include myself among those who expected this based on seemingly well understood principles
4/ this seems to have happened in Delhi and some other parts of India (if data is even approximately representative), but it hasn't happened in jurisdictions using Pfizer. Is it possible that vaccines in use in India are out-performing Pfizer in regard to Delta and/or are
5/ and/or are holding their protection better than Pfizer. I don't pretend to have any expert insight on these issues, but I really wish that our public health community would go to India and fact-find, and less time lecturing us on equity and inclusion.
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@Pimpernell13@15poundstogo@shipwreckedcrew in Ship's defense, I also spend a disproportionate amount of energy getting frustrated at "friendly" commentators who persist in connecting dots that dont connect. In my experience, nothing does more to disable serious critiques than rebuttable or incompetent analysis by "allies"
@Pimpernell13@15poundstogo@shipwreckedcrew what happens is that defenders choose the weakest critique to respond to and then ignore the more serious, more pointed but less strident critique.
@Pimpernell13@15poundstogo@shipwreckedcrew In trying to figure out events that are being actively concealed, one has to play more or less error-free ball. If you are a serious critic and make a mistake, it will be hung around your neck forever and your good points ignored.
this is a thread on an interesting idea that @Guccifer2Henry had, but which we've decided didn't quite work out. I'll set out the original theory - see if you can figure out why we've walked back from it. (And then I'll explain.)
2/ we'll start with paragraph 60 in the Mueller Indictment and work towards an apparent connection to Profexer, the Ukrainian author of malware featured in the DHS attribution of DNC hack. First, here's paragraph 60.
3/ in a blogpost in Apr 2019, Tim Cotten reported the identification of the transaction cited by Mueller (0.02604399 BTC on 2016-02-01) here blockchain.com/btc/tx/3c4c026…
ALL of the identifications of co-conspirators and participants in the Sussmann Indictment previously proposed in this corner of Twitter have been confirmed by Savage (just as he grudgingly confirmed identifications of Danchenko etc last year)
Joffe is Tech Exec 1/Max; Lorenzen is Originator-1/TeaLeaves; Dagon is Researcher-2; Antonakkis is Researcher-1; University-1 is Georgia Tech.
false Cohen in Prague story is curious anomaly in Steele dossier. US intel agencies worked overtime to portray it as "Russian" disinformation (rather than Beltway disinformation). But false story persisted (e.g. McClatchy), attributed to sources supposedly independent of Steele
my working theory on this anomaly has been the topic of Cohen in Prague was assigned to Danchenko by Fusion/Perkins Coie, with Danchenko then constructing an elaborate and entirely fictional account of the meeting in best Our Man in Havana style, attributing story to Galkina
but the provenance of the specific wrong information of Cohen in Prague remained a mystery, other than it probably had something to do with US surveillance operations (making a mistake).
on Sep 1, the Ontario Institute of Exponential Projections (aka Ontario Science Table) projected doom unless Ontario repented, wore sackcloth and ashes and located themselves on isolated columns like Stylite monks
2/ dire predictions from Ontario Science Table have, in past, been reliable indication that any given wave had its peak and this seems to be the case once again for so-called Fourth Wave - thus far (touch wood) a ripple in Ontario, tho you'd never know it from media hysterics
3/ as October approaches, cases and ICU occupancy are both below the lowest envelope of the Institute of Exponential Projections. This lower bound presumed policies that were wisely not adopted by govt. So projection even worse than indicated by envelope.