Santiago Capital Profile picture
Oct 8, 2021 25 tweets 12 min read Read on X
#AWallStreetStory
When I moved to NY in the late 90s I often took the subway bc I didn’t have money to ride around in cabs and town cars all the time. So the 6 Train doubled as my limousine and Grand Central Station doubled as my garage.
In May 1999 I was fortunate to be hired by Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette for their Wall Street training program. This was very convenient because the DLJ offices were just two blocks from my garage.
#277ParkAvenue
I was not due to report until mid August. So quit my current job & took off for Europe. Spent summer walking across Spain to Santiago de Compostela to secure my ticket into Heaven. Thought I might come in handy as my trip was scheduled to end in Ibiza…🤫😎
When I returned (20lbs lighter) I went straight to Barneys and spent my signing bonus on new suits, new shirts, new ties and new shoes (and I probably stopped at Walgreens for hair gel 😅).
I cannot even begin to tell you how excited I was.
Turns out head of training program was one of funniest *ssholes Ive ever meet. His job was to make us look stupid (he was good at this) in training so wouldnt look stupid in front of clients. Luckily I had read Liars Poker so was ready when he one days asked me “What is Libor…?”
In addition to training they took us on field trips. Went to Bloomberg HQ where I saw the man himself leaning back in his chair with feet up on desk talking on phone. No doubt closing another sale. Was pretty cool bc at time he was about as big a Wall Street icon as it got.
Also went to NYMEX and NYSE. It was also cool bc at the time there were still specialists and a lot of people trading on the floor. Not that way anymore. You go now and its mainly a bunch of computers, the CBNC crew and a few people standing around drinking coffee.
The best trip was to the FRBNY.
You have to understand this was before I knew anything & mostly believed what I was told.
I was very much under impression that Central Bankers were honorable public servants who had the countries well being at the top of their concern list.
They gave us big tour and whole time my fellow trainee who would not stop hitting on the attractive female Fed intern leading the tour. He thought himself pretty cool & was very persistent.
At end took us down to the Gold vault!
After passing through vault doors you were able to see several “cells” (looked like prison) and in cells were nicely stacked gold bars. Each “cell” had a name: Germany, Mexico, etc. I'm sure this wasnt inner sanctum but still pretty cool.
I dont remember it all, but what I do remember most was the fact that Casanova would not give it a rest with the Fed docent. He had been trying over and over for at least an hour at this point. Every time he would open his mouth I would just pray for it to end.
Finally he gave it 1 last shot.
I’ll never forget it.
Cas: “I have a question.”
Intern: “Yes?”
Cas: (attempt to be funny) “Why does that bar look like Fools gold?”
Intern: (not missing a beat) “Bc that is the bar we are giving to you when we are done today.”
#Legend
#TrueStory
Wasn’t all fun & games.
Still had to report to office for ritual whippings.
Were also assigned to shadow “veterans” who were the experts in the jobs we were going to be doing. Of course veterans didn’t want us there. And we knew the veterans didn’t want us to there...
#Awkward
It just so happened that DLJ had a handful of extremely successful female veterans. These women were tough as nails & already had legendary status. At least to us noobs. Stories of their successful exploits were handed down to us from our bosses & whispered amongst the trainees.
As fate would have it, I was assigned to one of them for a week. I was to do whatever she told me to do. On 1st day it became very clear to me that while I was given a heads up about this particular assignment she on other hand hadnt been consulted. And she was not amused...
But, she wasn’t successful because she was slow and couldn’t adapt. She very quickly saw the silver lining and understood that she now had free labor at her disposal. Within 2 minutes she had put me to work.
Next 5 days I was getting coffee, filing, faxing (yes faxing😅) research to prospective clients. She even had me cold calling to set up meetings. By end of week I was #FedUp! But like most things the challenge was actually a blessing. As I look back she did it right & Im grateful
So, who was this tough as nails veteran I spent the week in service to?
The one…
The only…
@DiMartinoBooth
I saw her for the first time in years a few months ago and we both had a good laugh about it.
🤣🙏😅🙌😅
These are all good memories and think about them a lot. But there is another memory I think about even more. Especially these days. This story is about the 3 times I met the former Chairman of DLJ, John Chalsty.
How can 3 different meetings produce 1 unified memory? Well, bc he told this exact same story at all 3 meetings! I don’t know if this is bc it had such an impact on him, or if he was just unable to remember anything else, but regardless, this is what was told (3 times 🤣).
After dissolution of USSR & movement towards free & market based economy was in swing, he & number of other Wall Street delegates were part of trip to Russia. Idea was to help educate the east on participating in economy that was not centrally planned & where prices not mandated.
1 day after was explained by a panel of westerners that “market” set prices & this allowed economy to clear goods more efficiently it was time for Q&A.
At 1st none of Russians wanted to be first to ask.
Bc was intimidating AND fact they had been trained not to question authority.
Finally 1 brave soul raises hand
Russian: Thanks, very interesting idea.
American: You’re welcome.
R: (slowly & shyly) U say the market sets the price, correct?
A: Yes
R: (looks doubtful): Ok, thank you.
A: Anything else?
R: Just 1 thing.
A: Yes?
R: Who REALLY sets the price...?
Sounds trivial but its not. It gets at very essence of what made America economic envy of those behind Iron Curtain. Placing optimism in individual above skepticism of collective raised Americas standard of living while Stalin was forced to starve Ukraine & sell their “gold”.
When Chalsty visited in 90s was hope falling Berlin Wall would release prosperity & peace as economic ideas of West flowed East. That happened a bit. But ideas flowed East to West as well. Will be very hard to get pendulum swinging back the other way...

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More from @SantiagoAuFund

May 17
Getting a lot of push back for "shorting silver" this morning. Reasons range from accomodative monetary authorites, a bullish chart, a move above its 5 year high, and the inevitable death of fiat.

So, a thread on my process that led to this decision. 👇
First, I didn't "short silver".
I bought puts on a silver derivative.
Which means I have a defined amount of risk.
I know my max loss whether silver rises 1% from here or 1,000% from here. And IMO the upside of this trade is decent considering the defined downside.
Second, I'm not "all in" on this.
Just a short term tactial trade as part of a diversified overall portfolio. And as part of overall portfolio am long gold. Won't get rich if right & I wont get rekt if wrong.
So why do it?
Bc its part of my job.
Why now?
The process says...
Read 21 tweets
Oct 20, 2023
OK, potential mea culpa time.
Ive now had 2 phone calls as well as email correspondence with US Treausury Dept about TIC data regarding what it does & does not show.
Long story short, its a bit confusing bc they recently changed methodology and may change it...again.
1/
In thread below I will share what Ive learned.
U are then free to make up your own mind as to what info is saying & what it means for markets.
The debate started a few months ago when charts of UST holdings by China started making the rounds.
TIC is the source for the chart
2/ Image
TIC data is based on CURRENT MARKET VALUE of CURRENT HOLDINGS at the end of period. Meaning it reflects purchases, sales & CHANGE IN VALUATION. This has been confirmed by UST department in person and in writing. Also, see footnotes on TIC data reports below.
3/
Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 8, 2023
Much has been made of the recent Fed rake hiking cycle as well as the coinciding collapse in long term UST Bond prices. I thought I'd do a short thread in order to help those who seek a better understanding of what is going on & whether "It's different this time."
Enjoy...
1/
Lets take look at historical hiking cycles.
Since late 70s, have been 7 cycles.
Chart shown below.
Absolute value right hand axis.
% growth shown on chart
(numbers approximate).

77-81 (290%)
83-84 (40%)
87-89 (60%)
94-95 (100%)
04-07 (400%)
15-18 (900%)
22-23 (2000%)

2/ Image
Here we see rate hiking cylcles with price of Long Term UST price overlaid.
We see both over long term, as well as during short term cycles, the UST price has tended to have an inverse correlation to rate hikes.
This is Bond 101.
As rates rise/fall, bond prices fall/rise.

3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
May 6, 2023
Which does a government hate more?
What is more likely to lead to deflation?
What is more likely to lead to a currency strengthening?
Read 5 tweets
Mar 26, 2023
For anyone who thinks I haven't done my research, I'm posting a paper I wrote on Bitcoin several years ago.

It is now somewhat dated but please feel free to tell me where I have it wrong or which part I "just don't get".

1/
2/
3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 1, 2023
A thread...

I started in this business almost 25 (!) years ago.
In that time, I have transitioned through the .com boom/bust, Sept 11, the RE boom/subsequent GFC, the Euro sovereign crisis, the '18 volmageddon, the '19 repo crisis, the Covid crisis & the '22 Fed hiking cycle.
1/
Safe to say Ive seen many separate episodes of both panic & euphoria. Sometimes right on heels of each other. Despite all of that, I've never seen a more uncertain time than right now. This is long way of saying if someone says they know for certain what comes next...
2/
This is also why I am always a bit surprised when I talk to someone who is a devoted member of some monolithic inflation, deflation, gold, fiat, crypto, hegemonic surpremacy, or global south tribe.
3/
Read 19 tweets

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