Queensland records zero new local cases of COVID-19, Jeannette Young praises people for getting tested abc.net.au/news/2021-10-0… via @ABCaustralia
Agree with CHO on how we've managed to "dodge a bullet" so often when clustered emerge. I'd add that having a clearly spoken, straightforward, collaborative CHO, dep. CHO(s), Premier, dep Premier - it makes a big difference.
We've also had good luck (and the south has had its share of bad luck), we don't have the high rise higher density living, we are outdoors more, we do have a sprawling State (problem for vaccination),
But we've also had a great response from our community when specific areas are asked to step forward for testing. Sampling numbers spike. We lockdown quickly, stopping spread. We test and trace, we open up again.
This pattern has (so far) kept the public onside. There's no one thing though. Its complex web of things. Tone and quality of communication are very important.
But at some point the luck will run out, we'll possibly see multiple clusters (like Melb did?) which
have been bubbling along for some time before being found. Numbers could climb & - as has happened everywhere - contact tracing will be overwhelmed. A lockdown might already have been called. Cases will eventually outpace lockdowns because those who must still work get infected
and start new fires.
Households will provide the fuel.
Hospitalisations will rise (just not to the extent we've seen pre-vaccination), then deaths. The speed of the rise may be reduced thanks to vaccination effects.
But every pocket of unvaccinated people will catch fire and burn brightest.
Those in regional areas who have not seen cases will see them, & their effects on loved ones.
Their social media will fill with ~10% of their infected unvaccinated friends becoming very sick, requiring hospitalisation. Some will die there.
It'll become very real very quickly. The media will be singing loudly their song of anxiety.
The unvaccinated will wish they'd started vaccinating 3mths ago.
But it will be too late because the best immune response requires both doses of vaccine plus another couple of weeks.
Please make the effort to get vaccinated NOW. Ask your boss for time off to get the shot. Walk into a clinic *this* weekend.
Put in the extra effort to seek out a vaccine site. Check again. Make noise if you can't find one.

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More from @MackayIM

24 Sep
If you're baking a cake, maybe one you haven't tried before, do you set the oven at a temperature, cook it for exactly xyz minutes, then turn the oven off, pull the cake out and eat it? Or do you leave the oven on while you check the cake is baked, and if it isn't leave it in?
In PCR'land we don't take our tubes out & test them, but we "set and forget" to a MAX baking time (=total number of cycles; at 40-50). We come back at the end & see the results. Virus positive samples show up *before* the run is completely finished (15-30 cycles, with some later)
In the real-world RT-PCR result below you can see a bunch of positive curves for flu (the negatives are the flat lines underneath the red threshold).
Doesn't matter what the final cycle number is (how long the oven was on), just that it allows all the ingredients to be cooked.
Read 6 tweets
18 Sep
A short thread on blocking to maintain your own mental health from others' aggression, bullying, anger, stupidity, trolling, disingenuity and abuse (of course, you can always log off social media to get a break from its negativity)
You don't have to follow me.
You don't have to read my ramblings.
You don't have to tell me what you think.
If you don't like what I'm writing, stop reading or block me.
I promise I won't mind. I probably won't even notice.
I don't owe you my time. I'm not your punching bag or assistant. I don't have to answer or tolerate your rude, trolling, maliciously deceptive questions or debate you because you want it. I'm here at my own cost for my own reasons.
Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
The first year of COVID-19 in Australia: direct and indirect health effects

A reminder of how vaccine development has been speeding up - but scicne and medicine did especially amazingly for this pandemic. A new benchmark?
A nice reminder that while most of COVID-19 is mild and moderate, a sizable portion is not at all - from hospitals through to death.
Polio was a rare outcome from poliovirus infection - but it wasn't something anyone wanted.
Vaccines work in these severe outcomes spaces.
Read 18 tweets
7 Sep
In Australia we are talking about lifting some restrictions once 70% of the eligible population is fully vaccinated ("double-dosed"); more will lift at 80%.
It's important to be fully aware that "70% of" anything often doesn't look like this - one homogenous group all at the same level.
Here the shape might be Australia, or all people, or one jurisdiction (e.g. a State, territory, building) or an age band (e.g. 16-25 year olds).
Overall, these two groups could, as an average of both ("=all of Australia"?), be considered vaccinated to a level of 70%.
And yet one group hasn't even cracked 70% fully vaccinated.
Read 5 tweets
28 Aug
In Victoria's (Aus) Wave 2 in 2020, there was a lag to hospitalisations (blue) following the initial wave of detections (orange). A small portion of those went to ICU and some died (black line). But in the current New South Wale's Wave 2...
...the daily number of COVID-19 cases hospitalised doesn't show that lag.
Is this due to a different policy for faster admission of cases, or home hospitalisation from the outset, or something else in NSW compared to VIC?

NSW sure got the testing amped up early on (green line)
I have no idea if there's a well-known & simple reason for this.

Chime in if you know it.

Data copied from covidlive.com.au
Read 7 tweets
11 Aug
This animal reservoir thing is not a factor in SARS-CoV-2 - the animal providing the virus opportunities, is us.
RVs, RSV - they don't have animal reservoirs. *We* are their reservoirs. So it seems like this person has no understanding of endemic respiratory viruses.
Summer respiratory viruses? Um. Summer flu? Every year. Enteroviruses which are in fact also spread by a respiratory route? Did this person miss the global bounce back of RSV as the world came out of Wave 1 COVID-19 lockdowns? That's traditionally not a summer virus.
Read 6 tweets

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